Land Drop
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Hypergeometric calculator

Chance to have the cards you need by a given turn: one or more groups of cards, each with a minimum or a range of copies, all together or at least one. Count the copies yourself or from a deck. How it works

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Counting from Lotho, Corrupt Shirriff · Jeremiah Davis · CEDH for Badlands / Mox Diamond / Gaea's Cradle @ Gameuphoria: 100 cards in the main deck.

Starting
More options: extra draws, mulligans, players
Conditions to meet
Condition 1
More conditions
Condition 2
Condition 3
Condition 4
Compare with

In place of cards of no condition: the deck keeps its size.

The 100 cards of the deck (100 different): conditions and effects
Which condition each card of the main deck counts for: the copies of a condition become the sum of its cards.
CardCopiesConditionIn the simulation
Ancient Tomb 1 —
Arid Mesa 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a mountain / plains card
Bleachbone Verge 1 —
Bloodstained Mire 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a swamp / mountain card
Caves of Koilos 1 —
City of Brass 1 —
Command Tower 1 —
Emergence Zone 1 —
Fell the Profane // Fell Mire 1 —
Flooded Strand 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a plains / island card
Gemstone Caverns 1 —
Godless Shrine 1 —
Mana Confluence 1 —
Marsh Flats 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a plains / swamp card
Plains 1 —
Polluted Delta 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a island / swamp card
Prismatic Vista 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a basic land card
Scrubland 1 —
Shadowy Backstreet 1 enters tapped; when it enters: scry 1
Silent Clearing 1 —
Snow-Covered Plains 1 —
Snow-Covered Swamp 1 —
Swamp 1 —
Takenuma, Abandoned Mire 1 —
Talon Gates of Madara 1 —
Vault of Champions 1 —
Verdant Catacombs 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a swamp / forest card
Windswept Heath 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a forest / plains card
Witch Enchanter // Witch-Blessed Meadow 1 —
Abdel Adrian, Gorion's Ward 1 —
Abeyance 1 draw 1
Animate Dead 1 —
Arcane Signet 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Archivist of Oghma 1 —
Aven Interrupter 1 —
Bennie Bracks, Zoologist 1 —
Beseech the Mirror 1 —
Boromir, Warden of the Tower 1 —
Braids, Arisen Nightmare 1 —
Buried Alive 1 —
Caretaker's Talent 1 —
Chrome Mox 1 —
Culling the Weak 1 adds 4 mana
Dark Ritual 1 adds 3 mana
Deadly Rollick 1 —
Delney, Streetwise Lookout 1 —
Demonic Tutor 1 —
Diabolic Intent 1 —
Drana and Linvala 1 —
Emptiness 1 —
Enlightened Tutor 1 search for a artifact / enchantment card
Entomb 1 —
Erode 1 —
Esper Sentinel 1 —
Final Parting 1 —
Fracture 1 —
Gleaming Splendor 1 —
Grim Tutor 1 —
Hoarding Broodlord 1 —
Idyllic Tutor 1 search for a enchantment card
Imp's Mischief 1 —
Imperial Seal 1 —
Kambal, Profiteering Mayor 1 —
Lively Dirge 1 —
Lotho, Corrupt Shirriff 1 —
Lotus Petal 1 tap, sacrifice: adds 1 mana
Mana Vault 1 tap: adds 3 mana
Mastermind Plum 1 —
Mox Amber 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Mox Diamond 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Mox Opal 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Necromancy 1 —
Necropotence 1 —
Opposition Agent 1 —
Orcish Bowmasters 1 —
Orim's Chant 1 —
Path to Exile 1 —
Peer into the Abyss 1 —
Ranger-Captain of Eos 1 when it enters: search for a creature card
Ratadrabik of Urborg 1 —
Reanimate 1 —
Reprieve 1 draw 1
Sacrifice 1 —
Saw in Half 1 —
Sevinne's Reclamation 1 —
Silence 1 —
Sol Ring 1 tap: adds 2 mana
Solitude 1 —
Sudden Spoiling 1 —
Swords to Plowshares 1 —
Tainted Pact 1 —
Talisman of Hierarchy 1 tap: adds 1 mana; tap: adds 1 mana
Tataru Taru 1 when it enters: draw 1
The Queen of Dale 1 —
The Sackville-Bagginses 1 —
Touch the Spirit Realm 1 —
Toxic Deluge 1 —
Trouble in Pairs 1 —
Vampiric Tutor 1 —
Wishclaw Talisman 1 —

Result

Write how many copies of the cards you want are in the deck.

Mana sources

Lands and other sources of one color you need in 100 cards to cast a spell on curve: C is one symbol of that color in the cost, CC two, CCC three.

Sources for a 90% chance by that turn, on the play
CostTurn 1Turn 2Turn 3Turn 4Turn 5Turn 6
C252220181716
CC—3633302826
CCC——44413835

A land every turn

Chance to play a land on each turn up to that one: at least one land by turn 1, two by turn 2, and so on.

29 lands in the 100 cards of the deck.

Lotho, Corrupt Shirriff decks play 25.9 lands on average, all Commander decks 27.4 (last 90 days).

A land drop on every turn up to that one
Up to turnOn the playOn the drawToo fewToo many
194.3%94.3%5.7%4.3%
279.9%79.9%20.1%1.6%
359.9%59.9%40.1%0.6%
439.9%39.9%60.1%0.2%
523.9%23.9%52.0%0.1%
613.0%13.0%44.4%0.0%
76.4%6.4%37.3%0.0%
82.9%2.9%30.9%0.0%
91.2%1.2%25.2%0.0%
100.5%0.5%20.4%0.0%

Casting on curve

For each spell of the deck: chance to have, on the turn equal to its mana value, that many lands and enough lands of its colors. Hybrid and Phyrexian symbols don’t count; other mana sources (creatures, artifacts) neither.

From the riskiest spell
CardCostTurnOn the playOn the draw
Hoarding Broodlord82.9%2.9%
Peer into the Abyss76.4%6.4%
Emptiness613.0%13.0%
Solitude523.5%23.5%
Final Parting523.7%23.7%
Abdel Adrian, Gorion's Ward523.9%23.9%
Beseech the Mirror431.8%31.8%
Necropotence335.1%35.1%
Drana and Linvala437.9%37.9%
Trouble in Pairs438.0%38.0%
Ratadrabik of Urborg439.7%39.7%
Bennie Bracks, Zoologist439.8%39.8%
Deadly Rollick439.9%39.9%
Aven Interrupter352.0%52.0%
Ranger-Captain of Eos352.0%52.0%
Braids, Arisen Nightmare353.8%53.8%
Grim Tutor353.8%53.8%
Sudden Spoiling353.8%53.8%
Kambal, Profiteering Mayor358.7%58.7%
Boromir, Warden of the Tower359.1%59.1%
Caretaker's Talent359.1%59.1%
Delney, Streetwise Lookout359.1%59.1%
Idyllic Tutor359.1%59.1%
Sevinne's Reclamation359.1%59.1%
Touch the Spirit Realm359.1%59.1%
Buried Alive359.4%59.4%
Mastermind Plum359.4%59.4%
Necromancy359.4%59.4%
Opposition Agent359.4%59.4%
Saw in Half359.4%59.4%
Toxic Deluge359.4%59.4%
Fracture274.3%74.3%
Lotho, Corrupt Shirriff274.3%74.3%
Abeyance276.6%76.6%
Archivist of Oghma276.6%76.6%
Gleaming Splendor276.6%76.6%
Reprieve276.6%76.6%
Tataru Taru276.6%76.6%
The Queen of Dale276.6%76.6%
Animate Dead277.4%77.4%
Demonic Tutor277.4%77.4%
Diabolic Intent277.4%77.4%
Imp's Mischief277.4%77.4%
Lively Dirge277.4%77.4%
Orcish Bowmasters277.4%77.4%
Tainted Pact277.4%77.4%
The Sackville-Bagginses277.4%77.4%
Wishclaw Talisman277.4%77.4%
Arcane Signet279.9%79.9%
Talisman of Hierarchy279.9%79.9%
Enlightened Tutor184.4%84.4%
Erode184.4%84.4%
Esper Sentinel184.4%84.4%
Orim's Chant184.4%84.4%
Path to Exile184.4%84.4%
Silence184.4%84.4%
Swords to Plowshares184.4%84.4%
Culling the Weak186.0%86.0%
Dark Ritual186.0%86.0%
Entomb186.0%86.0%
Imperial Seal186.0%86.0%
Reanimate186.0%86.0%
Sacrifice186.0%86.0%
Vampiric Tutor186.0%86.0%
Mana Vault194.3%94.3%
Sol Ring194.3%94.3%