Land Drop
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Hypergeometric calculator

Chance to have the cards you need by a given turn: one or more groups of cards, each with a minimum or a range of copies, all together or at least one. Count the copies yourself or from a deck. How it works

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Counting from Thrasios, Triton Hero + Yoshimaru, Ever Faithful · Robbse [CAVE] · 1.cEDH069 Major @Die Fabrik: 100 cards in the main deck.

Starting
More options: extra draws, mulligans, players
Conditions to meet
Condition 1
More conditions
Condition 2
Condition 3
Condition 4
Compare with

In place of cards of no condition: the deck keeps its size.

The 100 cards of the deck (100 different): conditions and effects
Which condition each card of the main deck counts for: the copies of a condition become the sum of its cards.
CardCopiesConditionIn the simulation
Ancient Tomb 1 —
Boseiju, Who Endures 1 —
Breeding Pool 1 —
City of Brass 1 —
Command Tower 1 —
Deserted Temple 1 —
Dryad Arbor 1 —
Emergence Zone 1 —
Flooded Strand 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a plains / island card
Gaea's Cradle 1 —
Gemstone Caverns 1 —
Hallowed Fountain 1 —
Mana Confluence 1 —
Marsh Flats 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a plains / swamp card
Minamo, School at Water's Edge 1 —
Misty Rainforest 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a forest / island card
Otawara, Soaring City 1 —
Polluted Delta 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a island / swamp card
Savannah 1 —
Scalding Tarn 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a island / mountain card
Shifting Woodland 1 —
Talon Gates of Madara 1 —
Tropical Island 1 —
Tundra 1 —
Verdant Catacombs 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a swamp / forest card
Windswept Heath 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a forest / plains card
Wooded Foothills 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a mountain / forest card
Badgermole Cub 1 —
Biomancer's Familiar 1 —
Birds of Paradise 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Borne Upon a Wind 1 draw 1
Candelabra of Tawnos 1 —
Chain of Vapor 1 —
Chord of Calling 1 search for a creature card
Chrome Mox 1 —
Cloud of Faeries 1 cycling (2 mana): draw 1
Crop Rotation 1 search for a land card
Cryptolith Rite 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Delighted Halfling 1 tap: adds 1 mana; tap: adds 1 mana
Derevi, Empyrial Tactician 1 —
Eldritch Evolution 1 search for a creature card
Elvish Spirit Guide 1 —
Emerald Charm 1 —
Emiel the Blessed 1 —
Endurance 1 —
Enduring Vitality 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Enlightened Tutor 1 search for a artifact / enchantment card
Esper Sentinel 1 —
Eternal Witness 1 —
Expedition Map 1 2 mana, tap, sacrifice: search for a land card
Faerie Mastermind 1 —
Fierce Guardianship 1 —
Finale of Devastation 1 —
Flesh Duplicate 1 —
Flusterstorm 1 —
Force of Negation 1 —
Force of Will 1 —
Formidable Speaker 1 when it enters: search for a creature card
Green Sun's Zenith 1 search for a green creature card
Invasion of Ikoria // Zilortha, Apex of Ikoria 1 —
Lotus Petal 1 tap, sacrifice: adds 1 mana
Magus of the Candelabra 1 —
Mana Vault 1 tap: adds 3 mana
Mental Misstep 1 —
Mindbreak Trap 1 —
Mockingbird 1 —
Mox Amber 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Mox Diamond 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Mystic Remora 1 —
Nature's Chosen 1 —
Nature's Rhythm 1 search for a creature card
Noble Hierarch 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Oboro Breezecaller 1 —
Orim's Chant 1 —
Pact of Negation 1 —
Peregrine Drake 1 —
Phantasmal Image 1 —
Phyrexian Metamorph 1 —
Pia, Aether Ascetic 1 when it enters: search for a enchantment card
Ranger-Captain of Eos 1 when it enters: search for a creature card
Rhystic Study 1 —
Shang-Chi, Master of Kung Fu 1 —
Silence 1 —
Snap 1 —
Sol Ring 1 tap: adds 2 mana
Sowing Mycospawn 1 —
Spellseeker 1 when it enters: search for a instant / sorcery card
Springheart Nantuko 1 —
Swan Song 1 —
Swords to Plowshares 1 —
Sylvan Scrying 1 search for a land card
The Cabbage Merchant 1 —
Thrasios, Triton Hero 1 4 mana: scry 1; 4 mana: draw 1
Training Grounds 1 —
Valley Floodcaller 1 —
Veil of Summer 1 draw 1
Voice of Victory 1 —
Wargate 1 search for a any card
Wild Growth 1 —
Yoshimaru, Ever Faithful 1 —

Result

Write how many copies of the cards you want are in the deck.

Combos in hand

Chance to have every piece of a combo by turn 3: the combos from Commander Spellbook with every card in the main deck.

Mana sources

Lands and other sources of one color you need in 100 cards to cast a spell on curve: C is one symbol of that color in the cost, CC two, CCC three.

Sources for a 90% chance by that turn, on the play
CostTurn 1Turn 2Turn 3Turn 4Turn 5Turn 6
C252220181716
CC—3633302826
CCC——44413835

A land every turn

Chance to play a land on each turn up to that one: at least one land by turn 1, two by turn 2, and so on.

27 lands in the 100 cards of the deck.

Thrasios, Triton Hero + Yoshimaru, Ever Faithful decks play 27.3 lands on average, all Commander decks 27.4 (last 90 days).

A land drop on every turn up to that one
Up to turnOn the playOn the drawToo fewToo many
192.8%92.8%7.2%3.2%
275.8%75.8%24.2%1.1%
354.0%54.0%46.0%0.4%
433.8%33.8%66.2%0.1%
518.8%18.8%58.7%0.0%
69.5%9.5%51.3%0.0%
74.3%4.3%44.3%0.0%
81.8%1.8%37.7%0.0%
90.7%0.7%31.7%0.0%
100.2%0.2%26.3%0.0%

Casting on curve

For each spell of the deck: chance to have, on the turn equal to its mana value, that many lands and enough lands of its colors. Hybrid and Phyrexian symbols don’t count; other mana sources (creatures, artifacts) neither.

From the riskiest spell
CardCostTurnOn the playOn the draw
Force of Will517.3%17.3%
Peregrine Drake518.7%18.7%
Chord of Calling319.8%19.8%
Emiel the Blessed421.0%21.0%
Ranger-Captain of Eos326.0%26.0%
Mindbreak Trap428.3%28.3%
Sowing Mycospawn433.4%33.4%
Phyrexian Metamorph433.8%33.8%
Force of Negation338.1%38.1%
Flesh Duplicate240.4%40.4%
Eldritch Evolution340.7%40.7%
Endurance340.7%40.7%
Enduring Vitality340.7%40.7%
Eternal Witness340.7%40.7%
Derevi, Empyrial Tactician343.3%43.3%
Wargate343.3%43.3%
Finale of Devastation244.0%44.0%
Invasion of Ikoria // Zilortha, Apex of Ikoria244.0%44.0%
Nature's Rhythm244.0%44.0%
Fierce Guardianship351.4%51.4%
Rhystic Study351.4%51.4%
Spellseeker351.4%51.4%
Valley Floodcaller351.4%51.4%
Elvish Spirit Guide352.1%52.1%
Formidable Speaker352.1%52.1%
Pia, Aether Ascetic352.1%52.1%
The Cabbage Merchant352.1%52.1%
Voice of Victory258.8%58.8%
Biomancer's Familiar261.8%61.8%
Thrasios, Triton Hero261.8%61.8%
Enlightened Tutor162.0%62.0%
Esper Sentinel162.0%62.0%
Orim's Chant162.0%62.0%
Silence162.0%62.0%
Swords to Plowshares162.0%62.0%
Yoshimaru, Ever Faithful162.0%62.0%
Borne Upon a Wind267.8%67.8%
Cloud of Faeries267.8%67.8%
Faerie Mastermind267.8%67.8%
Oboro Breezecaller267.8%67.8%
Phantasmal Image267.8%67.8%
Snap267.8%67.8%
Badgermole Cub269.3%69.3%
Cryptolith Rite269.3%69.3%
Shang-Chi, Master of Kung Fu269.3%69.3%
Springheart Nantuko269.3%69.3%
Sylvan Scrying269.3%69.3%
Chain of Vapor174.1%74.1%
Flusterstorm174.1%74.1%
Mockingbird174.1%74.1%
Mystic Remora174.1%74.1%
Swan Song174.1%74.1%
Training Grounds174.1%74.1%
Birds of Paradise176.6%76.6%
Crop Rotation176.6%76.6%
Delighted Halfling176.6%76.6%
Emerald Charm176.6%76.6%
Green Sun's Zenith176.6%76.6%
Magus of the Candelabra176.6%76.6%
Nature's Chosen176.6%76.6%
Noble Hierarch176.6%76.6%
Veil of Summer176.6%76.6%
Wild Growth176.6%76.6%
Candelabra of Tawnos192.8%92.8%
Expedition Map192.8%92.8%
Mana Vault192.8%92.8%
Mental Misstep192.8%92.8%
Sol Ring192.8%92.8%