Land Drop
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Hypergeometric calculator

Chance to have the cards you need by a given turn: one or more groups of cards, each with a minimum or a range of copies, all together or at least one. Count the copies yourself or from a deck. How it works

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Counting from Kinnan, Bonder Prodigy · TumbleOP · Commander Invitational Qualifier - Final Fortune Gaming: 100 cards in the main deck.

Starting
More options: extra draws, mulligans, players
Conditions to meet
Condition 1
More conditions
Condition 2
Condition 3
Condition 4
Compare with

In place of cards of no condition: the deck keeps its size.

The 100 cards of the deck (100 different): conditions and effects
Which condition each card of the main deck counts for: the copies of a condition become the sum of its cards.
CardCopiesConditionIn the simulation
Barkchannel Pathway // Tidechannel Pathway 1 —
Boseiju, Who Endures 1 —
Botanical Sanctum 1 —
Breeding Pool 1 —
City of Brass 1 —
Command Tower 1 —
Flooded Strand 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a plains / island card
Forest 1 —
Gaea's Cradle 1 —
Gemstone Caverns 1 —
Glasspool Mimic // Glasspool Shore 1 —
Hydroelectric Specimen // Hydroelectric Laboratory 1 —
Island 1 —
Mana Confluence 1 —
Misty Rainforest 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a forest / island card
Otawara, Soaring City 1 —
Polluted Delta 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a island / swamp card
Rejuvenating Springs 1 —
Scalding Tarn 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a island / mountain card
Tropical Island 1 —
Verdant Catacombs 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a swamp / forest card
Waterlogged Grove 1 —
Windswept Heath 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a forest / plains card
Wooded Foothills 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a mountain / forest card
Yavimaya Coast 1 —
An Offer You Can't Refuse 1 —
Archetype of Endurance 1 —
Armored Scrapgorger 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Badgermole Cub 1 —
Biomancer's Familiar 1 —
Birds of Paradise 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Bloom Tender 1 —
Chrome Mox 1 —
Circle of Dreams Druid 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Citanul Stalwart 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Clever Impersonator 1 —
Cryptolith Rite 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Deadeye Navigator 1 —
Delighted Halfling 1 tap: adds 1 mana; tap: adds 1 mana
Devoted Druid 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Dispel 1 —
Elvish Mystic 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Elvish Spirit Guide 1 —
Endurance 1 —
Enduring Vitality 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Evolution Witness 1 —
Fanatic of Rhonas 1 tap: adds 1 mana; tap: adds 4 mana
Fierce Guardianship 1 —
Finale of Devastation 1 —
Flesh Duplicate 1 —
Flusterstorm 1 —
Force of Will 1 —
Formidable Speaker 1 when it enters: search for a creature card
Fyndhorn Elves 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Gene Pollinator 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Gigantoplasm 1 —
Glen Elendra Archmage 1 —
Great Oak Guardian 1 —
Green Sun's Zenith 1 search for a green creature card
Gyre Sage 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Ilysian Caryatid 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Incubation Druid 1 —
Jaspera Sentinel 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Kinnan, Bonder Prodigy 1 7 mana: look at 5, take one
Knacksaw Clique 1 —
Llanowar Elves 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Llanowar Loamspeaker 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Lotus Petal 1 tap, sacrifice: adds 1 mana
Marvin, Murderous Mimic 1 —
Mental Misstep 1 —
Mindbreak Trap 1 —
Mirror Image 1 —
Mockingbird 1 —
Mox Amber 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Mox Diamond 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Murkfiend Liege 1 —
Nature's Rhythm 1 search for a creature card
Nyxbloom Ancient 1 —
Oboro Breezecaller 1 —
Pact of Negation 1 —
Paradise Druid 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Phantasmal Image 1 —
Phyrexian Metamorph 1 —
Pili-Pala 1 2 mana: adds 1 mana
Priest of Titania 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Prime Speaker Vannifar 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a creature card
Progenitor Mimic 1 —
Saruli Caretaker 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Seedborn Muse 1 —
Shang-Chi, Master of Kung Fu 1 —
Sol Ring 1 tap: adds 2 mana
Spark Double 1 —
Springleaf Drum 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Swan Song 1 —
Sylvan Caryatid 1 tap: adds 1 mana
The Notary Hobbits 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Training Grounds 1 —
Whisperer of the Wilds 1 tap: adds 1 mana; tap: adds 2 mana
Woodland Bellower 1 when it enters: search for a nonlegendary green creature card
Worldly Tutor 1 search for a creature card

Result

Write how many copies of the cards you want are in the deck.

Combos in hand

Chance to have every piece of a combo by turn 3: the combos from Commander Spellbook with every card in the main deck.

Mana sources

Lands and other sources of one color you need in 100 cards to cast a spell on curve: C is one symbol of that color in the cost, CC two, CCC three.

Sources for a 90% chance by that turn, on the play
CostTurn 1Turn 2Turn 3Turn 4Turn 5Turn 6
C252220181716
CC—3633302826
CCC——44413835

A land every turn

Chance to play a land on each turn up to that one: at least one land by turn 1, two by turn 2, and so on.

25 lands in the 100 cards of the deck.

Kinnan, Bonder Prodigy decks play 25.9 lands on average, all Commander decks 27.3 (last 90 days).

A land drop on every turn up to that one
Up to turnOn the playOn the drawToo fewToo many
190.9%90.9%9.1%2.2%
271.2%71.2%28.8%0.7%
347.8%47.8%52.2%0.2%
427.9%27.9%72.1%0.1%
514.4%14.4%65.3%0.0%
66.6%6.6%58.4%0.0%
72.7%2.7%51.7%0.0%
81.0%1.0%45.1%0.0%
90.4%0.4%39.0%0.0%
100.1%0.1%33.3%0.0%

Casting on curve

For each spell of the deck: chance to have, on the turn equal to its mana value, that many lands and enough lands of its colors. Hybrid and Phyrexian symbols don’t count; other mana sources (creatures, artifacts) neither.

From the riskiest spell
CardCostTurnOn the playOn the draw
Archetype of Endurance81.0%1.0%
Nyxbloom Ancient72.7%2.7%
Woodland Bellower66.6%6.6%
Deadeye Navigator66.6%6.6%
Progenitor Mimic66.6%6.6%
Great Oak Guardian66.6%6.6%
Seedborn Muse514.2%14.2%
The Notary Hobbits514.2%14.2%
Force of Will514.3%14.3%
Murkfiend Liege514.4%14.4%
Circle of Dreams Druid325.7%25.7%
Clever Impersonator427.3%27.3%
Mindbreak Trap427.3%27.3%
Prime Speaker Vannifar427.8%27.8%
Gigantoplasm427.9%27.9%
Glen Elendra Archmage427.9%27.9%
Knacksaw Clique427.9%27.9%
Spark Double427.9%27.9%
Phyrexian Metamorph427.9%27.9%
Endurance342.3%42.3%
Enduring Vitality342.3%42.3%
Elvish Spirit Guide347.4%47.4%
Evolution Witness347.4%47.4%
Formidable Speaker347.4%47.4%
Fierce Guardianship347.6%47.6%
Mirror Image347.6%47.6%
Finale of Devastation250.9%50.9%
Nature's Rhythm250.9%50.9%
Flesh Duplicate254.2%54.2%
Biomancer's Familiar266.8%66.8%
Kinnan, Bonder Prodigy266.8%66.8%
Armored Scrapgorger268.6%68.6%
Badgermole Cub268.6%68.6%
Bloom Tender268.6%68.6%
Cryptolith Rite268.6%68.6%
Devoted Druid268.6%68.6%
Fanatic of Rhonas268.6%68.6%
Gyre Sage268.6%68.6%
Ilysian Caryatid268.6%68.6%
Incubation Druid268.6%68.6%
Llanowar Loamspeaker268.6%68.6%
Paradise Druid268.6%68.6%
Priest of Titania268.6%68.6%
Shang-Chi, Master of Kung Fu268.6%68.6%
Sylvan Caryatid268.6%68.6%
Whisperer of the Wilds268.6%68.6%
Oboro Breezecaller269.4%69.4%
Phantasmal Image269.4%69.4%
Marvin, Murderous Mimic271.2%71.2%
Pili-Pala271.2%71.2%
Birds of Paradise180.8%80.8%
Citanul Stalwart180.8%80.8%
Delighted Halfling180.8%80.8%
Elvish Mystic180.8%80.8%
Fyndhorn Elves180.8%80.8%
Gene Pollinator180.8%80.8%
Green Sun's Zenith180.8%80.8%
Jaspera Sentinel180.8%80.8%
Llanowar Elves180.8%80.8%
Saruli Caretaker180.8%80.8%
Worldly Tutor180.8%80.8%
An Offer You Can't Refuse182.7%82.7%
Dispel182.7%82.7%
Flusterstorm182.7%82.7%
Mockingbird182.7%82.7%
Swan Song182.7%82.7%
Training Grounds182.7%82.7%
Mental Misstep190.9%90.9%
Sol Ring190.9%90.9%
Springleaf Drum190.9%90.9%