Land Drop
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Hypergeometric calculator

Chance to have the cards you need by a given turn: one or more groups of cards, each with a minimum or a range of copies, all together or at least one. Count the copies yourself or from a deck. How it works

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Counting from Y'shtola, Night's Blessed · Evan Jones · CEDH Win-A-Dual: 100 cards in the main deck.

Starting
More options: extra draws, mulligans, players
Conditions to meet
Condition 1
More conditions
Condition 2
Condition 3
Condition 4
Compare with

In place of cards of no condition: the deck keeps its size.

The 100 cards of the deck (100 different): conditions and effects
Which condition each card of the main deck counts for: the copies of a condition become the sum of its cards.
CardCopiesConditionIn the simulation
Adarkar Wastes 1 —
Ancient Tomb 1 —
Cavern of Souls 1 —
Cephalid Coliseum 1 —
City of Brass 1 —
Command Tower 1 —
Exotic Orchard 1 —
Flooded Strand 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a plains / island card
Gemstone Caverns 1 —
Godless Shrine 1 —
Hallowed Fountain 1 —
Mana Confluence 1 —
Marsh Flats 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a plains / swamp card
Mistrise Village 1 —
Morphic Pool 1 —
Otawara, Soaring City 1 —
Polluted Delta 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a island / swamp card
Scrubland 1 —
Sink into Stupor // Soporific Springs 1 —
Starting Town 1 —
Sunken Ruins 1 —
Tundra 1 —
Underground River 1 —
Underground Sea 1 —
Urza's Saga 1 —
Watery Grave 1 —
Angelic Favor 1 —
Arcane Signet 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Beseech the Mirror 1 —
Bloodchief Ascension 1 —
Chain of Vapor 1 —
Chrome Mox 1 —
Containment Priest 1 —
Curiosity 1 —
Cyclonic Rift 1 —
Dark Ritual 1 adds 3 mana
Daze 1 —
Deadly Rollick 1 —
Delney, Streetwise Lookout 1 —
Demonic Consultation 1 —
Demonic Tutor 1 —
Dismember 1 —
Drannith Magistrate 1 —
Enlightened Tutor 1 search for a artifact / enchantment card
Esper Sentinel 1 —
Exquisite Blood 1 —
Fierce Guardianship 1 —
Flare of Fortitude 1 —
Flawless Maneuver 1 —
Flusterstorm 1 —
Force of Negation 1 —
Force of Will 1 —
Grafted Exoskeleton 1 —
Grand Abolisher 1 —
Helm of the Ghastlord 1 —
Hullbreaker Horror 1 —
Hushbringer 1 —
Into the Flood Maw 1 —
Irma, Part-Time Mutant 1 —
Karmic Justice 1 —
Laquatus's Disdain 1 draw 1
Lightning Greaves 1 —
Lotus Petal 1 tap, sacrifice: adds 1 mana
Mana Vault 1 tap: adds 3 mana
Mental Misstep 1 —
Mindcrank 1 —
Mox Amber 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Mox Diamond 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Mox Opal 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Mystic Remora 1 —
Mystical Tutor 1 search for a instant / sorcery card
Opposition Agent 1 —
Orcish Bowmasters 1 —
Patrician's Scorn 1 —
Phyresis 1 —
Ramosian Rally 1 —
Reanimate 1 —
Reverent Mantra 1 —
Rhystic Study 1 —
Roaming Throne 1 —
Sigil of Sleep 1 —
Silence 1 —
Sivvi's Ruse 1 —
Snuff Out 1 —
Sol Ring 1 tap: adds 2 mana
Starscape Cleric 1 —
Swords to Plowshares 1 —
Talisman of Dominance 1 tap: adds 1 mana; tap: adds 1 mana
Talisman of Hierarchy 1 tap: adds 1 mana; tap: adds 1 mana
Talisman of Progress 1 tap: adds 1 mana; tap: adds 1 mana
Tataru Taru 1 when it enters: draw 1
Thassa's Oracle 1 —
The One Ring 1 tap: draw 1
Unmask 1 —
Valley Floodcaller 1 —
Vampiric Tutor 1 —
Windfall 1 —
Wishclaw Talisman 1 —
Y'shtola, Night's Blessed 1 —
Yawgmoth's Will 1 —

Result

Write how many copies of the cards you want are in the deck.

Mana sources

Lands and other sources of one color you need in 100 cards to cast a spell on curve: C is one symbol of that color in the cost, CC two, CCC three.

Sources for a 90% chance by that turn, on the play
CostTurn 1Turn 2Turn 3Turn 4Turn 5Turn 6
C252220181716
CC—3633302826
CCC——44413835

A land every turn

Chance to play a land on each turn up to that one: at least one land by turn 1, two by turn 2, and so on.

26 lands in the 100 cards of the deck.

Y'shtola, Night's Blessed decks play 29.7 lands on average, all Commander decks 27.3 (last 90 days).

A land drop on every turn up to that one
Up to turnOn the playOn the drawToo fewToo many
191.9%91.9%8.1%2.7%
273.6%73.6%26.4%0.9%
351.0%51.0%49.0%0.3%
430.8%30.8%69.2%0.1%
516.5%16.5%62.0%0.0%
68.0%8.0%54.9%0.0%
73.5%3.5%47.9%0.0%
81.4%1.4%41.3%0.0%
90.5%0.5%35.3%0.0%
100.2%0.2%29.7%0.0%

Casting on curve

For each spell of the deck: chance to have, on the turn equal to its mana value, that many lands and enough lands of its colors. Hybrid and Phyrexian symbols don’t count; other mana sources (creatures, artifacts) neither.

From the riskiest spell
CardCostTurnOn the playOn the draw
Hullbreaker Horror73.5%3.5%
Exquisite Blood516.5%16.5%
Force of Will516.5%16.5%
Beseech the Mirror418.5%18.5%
Flare of Fortitude425.1%25.1%
Sivvi's Ruse425.1%25.1%
Y'shtola, Night's Blessed429.8%29.8%
Angelic Favor430.1%30.1%
Patrician's Scorn430.1%30.1%
Ramosian Rally430.1%30.1%
Reverent Mantra430.1%30.1%
Deadly Rollick430.5%30.5%
Snuff Out430.5%30.5%
Unmask430.5%30.5%
Grafted Exoskeleton430.8%30.8%
Helm of the Ghastlord430.8%30.8%
Roaming Throne430.8%30.8%
The One Ring430.8%30.8%
Grand Abolisher236.8%36.8%
Delney, Streetwise Lookout348.1%48.1%
Flawless Maneuver348.1%48.1%
Karmic Justice348.1%48.1%
Force of Negation348.4%48.4%
Opposition Agent349.5%49.5%
Yawgmoth's Will349.5%49.5%
Fierce Guardianship350.8%50.8%
Irma, Part-Time Mutant350.8%50.8%
Rhystic Study350.8%50.8%
Valley Floodcaller350.8%50.8%
Windfall350.8%50.8%
Dismember351.0%51.0%
Thassa's Oracle260.4%60.4%
Containment Priest264.7%64.7%
Drannith Magistrate264.7%64.7%
Hushbringer264.7%64.7%
Tataru Taru264.7%64.7%
Demonic Tutor268.0%68.0%
Orcish Bowmasters268.0%68.0%
Phyresis268.0%68.0%
Starscape Cleric268.0%68.0%
Wishclaw Talisman268.0%68.0%
Enlightened Tutor171.5%71.5%
Esper Sentinel171.5%71.5%
Silence171.5%71.5%
Swords to Plowshares171.5%71.5%
Cyclonic Rift272.5%72.5%
Daze272.5%72.5%
Laquatus's Disdain272.5%72.5%
Arcane Signet273.6%73.6%
Lightning Greaves273.6%73.6%
Mindcrank273.6%73.6%
Talisman of Dominance273.6%73.6%
Talisman of Hierarchy273.6%73.6%
Talisman of Progress273.6%73.6%
Bloodchief Ascension176.6%76.6%
Dark Ritual176.6%76.6%
Demonic Consultation176.6%76.6%
Reanimate176.6%76.6%
Vampiric Tutor176.6%76.6%
Chain of Vapor186.0%86.0%
Curiosity186.0%86.0%
Flusterstorm186.0%86.0%
Into the Flood Maw186.0%86.0%
Mystic Remora186.0%86.0%
Mystical Tutor186.0%86.0%
Sigil of Sleep186.0%86.0%
Mana Vault191.9%91.9%
Mental Misstep191.9%91.9%
Sol Ring191.9%91.9%