Land Drop
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Hypergeometric calculator

Chance to have the cards you need by a given turn: one or more groups of cards, each with a minimum or a range of copies, all together or at least one. Count the copies yourself or from a deck. How it works

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Counting from Nick Fury, Agent of S.H.I.E.L.D. · Bryce Gayagas · Oahu Commander Invitational Qualifier Ser4S2W10: 100 cards in the main deck.

Starting
More options: extra draws, mulligans, players
Conditions to meet
Condition 1
More conditions
Condition 2
Condition 3
Condition 4
Compare with

In place of cards of no condition: the deck keeps its size.

The 100 cards of the deck (100 different): conditions and effects
Which condition each card of the main deck counts for: the copies of a condition become the sum of its cards.
CardCopiesConditionIn the simulation
Ancient Tomb 1 —
Arid Mesa 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a mountain / plains card
Badlands 1 —
Bloodstained Mire 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a swamp / mountain card
City of Brass 1 —
City of Traitors 1 —
Command Tower 1 —
Exotic Orchard 1 —
Flooded Strand 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a plains / island card
Gemstone Caverns 1 —
Mana Confluence 1 —
Marsh Flats 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a plains / swamp card
Misty Rainforest 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a forest / island card
Otawara, Soaring City 1 —
Plateau 1 —
Polluted Delta 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a island / swamp card
Scalding Tarn 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a island / mountain card
Scrubland 1 —
Spire of Industry 1 —
Starting Town 1 —
Tundra 1 —
Underground Sea 1 —
Verdant Catacombs 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a swamp / forest card
Volcanic Island 1 —
Windswept Heath 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a forest / plains card
Ad Nauseam 1 —
Arcane Signet 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Archivist of Oghma 1 —
Beseech the Mirror 1 —
Borne Upon a Wind 1 draw 1
Brain Freeze 1 —
Cabal Ritual 1 adds 3 mana
Chain of Vapor 1 —
Chrome Mox 1 —
Culling Ritual 1 —
Culling the Weak 1 adds 4 mana
Dark Ritual 1 adds 3 mana
Deadly Rollick 1 —
Deathrite Shaman 1 —
Deflecting Swat 1 —
Demonic Consultation 1 —
Demonic Tutor 1 —
Diabolic Intent 1 —
Elvish Spirit Guide 1 —
Enlightened Tutor 1 search for a artifact / enchantment card
Esper Sentinel 1 —
Faerie Mastermind 1 —
Fellwar Stone 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Fierce Guardianship 1 —
Final Fortune 1 —
Flusterstorm 1 —
Force of Negation 1 —
Force of Will 1 —
Gamble 1 —
Gleaming Splendor 1 —
Grinding Station 1 —
Hexing Squelcher 1 —
Imperial Seal 1 —
Into the Flood Maw 1 —
Intuition 1 —
Jennifer Walters // The Sensational She-Hulk 1 —
Lion's Eye Diamond 1 —
Lotho, Corrupt Shirriff 1 —
Lotus Petal 1 tap, sacrifice: adds 1 mana
Mana Vault 1 tap: adds 3 mana
Manamorphose 1 adds 2 mana; draw 1
Mental Misstep 1 —
Mindbreak Trap 1 —
Mox Amber 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Mox Diamond 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Mox Opal 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Mystic Remora 1 —
Mystical Tutor 1 search for a instant / sorcery card
Necropotence 1 —
Nick Fury, Agent of S.H.I.E.L.D. 1 5 mana: look at 7, take one
Noxious Revival 1 —
Pact of Negation 1 —
Praetor's Grasp 1 —
Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer 1 —
Ranger-Captain of Eos 1 when it enters: search for a creature card
Red Elemental Blast 1 —
Relic of Legends 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Rhystic Study 1 —
Rite of Flame 1 adds 2 mana
Sevinne's Reclamation 1 —
Silence 1 —
Simian Spirit Guide 1 —
Smothering Tithe 1 —
Snapback 1 —
Sol Ring 1 tap: adds 2 mana
Springleaf Drum 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Swan Song 1 —
Tainted Pact 1 —
Tataru Taru 1 when it enters: draw 1
Thassa's Oracle 1 —
Underworld Breach 1 —
Valley Floodcaller 1 —
Vampiric Tutor 1 —
Wan Shi Tong, Librarian 1 —
Wishclaw Talisman 1 —

Result

Write how many copies of the cards you want are in the deck.

Mana sources

Lands and other sources of one color you need in 100 cards to cast a spell on curve: C is one symbol of that color in the cost, CC two, CCC three.

Sources for a 90% chance by that turn, on the play
CostTurn 1Turn 2Turn 3Turn 4Turn 5Turn 6
C252220181716
CC—3633302826
CCC——44413835

A land every turn

Chance to play a land on each turn up to that one: at least one land by turn 1, two by turn 2, and so on.

25 lands in the 100 cards of the deck.

Nick Fury, Agent of S.H.I.E.L.D. decks play 25.3 lands on average, all Commander decks 27.3 (last 90 days).

A land drop on every turn up to that one
Up to turnOn the playOn the drawToo fewToo many
190.9%90.9%9.1%2.2%
271.2%71.2%28.8%0.7%
347.8%47.8%52.2%0.2%
427.9%27.9%72.1%0.1%
514.4%14.4%65.3%0.0%
66.6%6.6%58.4%0.0%
72.7%2.7%51.7%0.0%
81.0%1.0%45.1%0.0%
90.4%0.4%39.0%0.0%
100.1%0.1%33.3%0.0%

Casting on curve

For each spell of the deck: chance to have, on the turn equal to its mana value, that many lands and enough lands of its colors. Hybrid and Phyrexian symbols don’t count; other mana sources (creatures, artifacts) neither.

From the riskiest spell
CardCostTurnOn the playOn the draw
Ad Nauseam513.3%13.3%
Force of Will513.6%13.6%
Beseech the Mirror413.8%13.8%
Necropotence314.5%14.5%
Mindbreak Trap424.6%24.6%
Culling Ritual425.2%25.2%
Deadly Rollick427.4%27.4%
Smothering Tithe427.4%27.4%
Final Fortune233.1%33.1%
Praetor's Grasp333.5%33.5%
Ranger-Captain of Eos333.5%33.5%
Force of Negation336.0%36.0%
Thassa's Oracle240.4%40.4%
Wan Shi Tong, Librarian240.4%40.4%
Elvish Spirit Guide340.7%40.7%
Deflecting Swat344.6%44.6%
Simian Spirit Guide344.6%44.6%
Sevinne's Reclamation345.5%45.5%
Fierce Guardianship346.2%46.2%
Intuition346.2%46.2%
Rhystic Study346.2%46.2%
Valley Floodcaller346.2%46.2%
Relic of Legends347.8%47.8%
Lotho, Corrupt Shirriff257.4%57.4%
Hexing Squelcher261.5%61.5%
Underworld Breach261.5%61.5%
Archivist of Oghma263.4%63.4%
Cabal Ritual263.4%63.4%
Demonic Tutor263.4%63.4%
Diabolic Intent263.4%63.4%
Gleaming Splendor263.4%63.4%
Jennifer Walters // The Sensational She-Hulk263.4%63.4%
Tainted Pact263.4%63.4%
Tataru Taru263.4%63.4%
Wishclaw Talisman263.4%63.4%
Borne Upon a Wind265.1%65.1%
Brain Freeze265.1%65.1%
Faerie Mastermind265.1%65.1%
Snapback265.1%65.1%
Gamble168.6%68.6%
Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer168.6%68.6%
Red Elemental Blast168.6%68.6%
Rite of Flame168.6%68.6%
Arcane Signet271.2%71.2%
Fellwar Stone271.2%71.2%
Grinding Station271.2%71.2%
Manamorphose271.2%71.2%
Culling the Weak171.5%71.5%
Dark Ritual171.5%71.5%
Demonic Consultation171.5%71.5%
Enlightened Tutor171.5%71.5%
Esper Sentinel171.5%71.5%
Imperial Seal171.5%71.5%
Nick Fury, Agent of S.H.I.E.L.D.171.5%71.5%
Silence171.5%71.5%
Vampiric Tutor171.5%71.5%
Chain of Vapor174.1%74.1%
Flusterstorm174.1%74.1%
Into the Flood Maw174.1%74.1%
Mystic Remora174.1%74.1%
Mystical Tutor174.1%74.1%
Swan Song174.1%74.1%
Deathrite Shaman190.9%90.9%
Mana Vault190.9%90.9%
Mental Misstep190.9%90.9%
Noxious Revival190.9%90.9%
Sol Ring190.9%90.9%
Springleaf Drum190.9%90.9%