Land Drop
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Hypergeometric calculator

Chance to have the cards you need by a given turn: one or more groups of cards, each with a minimum or a range of copies, all together or at least one. Count the copies yourself or from a deck. How it works

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Counting from Sisay, Weatherlight Captain · Theodore Ellington · Commander Invitational Qualifier - Final Fortune Gaming: 100 cards in the main deck.

Starting
More options: extra draws, mulligans, players
Conditions to meet
Condition 1
More conditions
Condition 2
Condition 3
Condition 4
Compare with

In place of cards of no condition: the deck keeps its size.

The 100 cards of the deck (100 different): conditions and effects
Which condition each card of the main deck counts for: the copies of a condition become the sum of its cards.
CardCopiesConditionIn the simulation
Ancient Tomb 1 —
Bayou 1 —
Boseiju, Who Endures 1 —
Breeding Pool 1 —
City of Brass 1 —
Command Tower 1 —
Flooded Strand 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a plains / island card
Forbidden Orchard 1 —
Gaea's Cradle 1 —
Gemstone Caverns 1 —
Mana Confluence 1 —
Marsh Flats 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a plains / swamp card
Misty Rainforest 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a forest / island card
Mount Doom 1 —
Polluted Delta 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a island / swamp card
Savannah 1 —
Scalding Tarn 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a island / mountain card
Scrubland 1 —
Starting Town 1 —
Taiga 1 —
Tarnished Citadel 1 —
Tropical Island 1 —
Tundra 1 —
Underground Sea 1 —
Verdant Catacombs 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a swamp / forest card
Volcanic Island 1 —
Windswept Heath 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a forest / plains card
Wooded Foothills 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a mountain / forest card
Abrupt Decay 1 —
Agatha's Soul Cauldron 1 —
An Offer You Can't Refuse 1 —
Arcane Signet 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Ashiok, Dream Render 1 —
Birds of Paradise 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Bloom Tender 1 —
Chord of Calling 1 search for a creature card
Chrome Mox 1 —
Colossal Skyturtle 1 —
Crop Rotation 1 search for a land card
Cyclonic Rift 1 —
Deadpool, Trading Card 1 —
Deafening Silence 1 —
Deflecting Swat 1 —
Delighted Halfling 1 tap: adds 1 mana; tap: adds 1 mana
Demonic Tutor 1 —
Derevi, Empyrial Tactician 1 —
Dismember 1 —
Eladamri's Call 1 search for a creature card
Elvish Spirit Guide 1 —
Emiel the Blessed 1 —
Enduring Vitality 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Enlightened Tutor 1 search for a artifact / enchantment card
Ertai Resurrected 1 —
Esika, God of the Tree // The Prismatic Bridge 1 tap: adds 1 mana; tap: adds 1 mana
Esper Sentinel 1 —
Fierce Guardianship 1 —
Flusterstorm 1 —
Force of Will 1 —
Gleaming Splendor 1 —
Ignoble Hierarch 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Imposter Mech 1 —
Into the Flood Maw 1 —
Ioreth of the Healing House 1 —
Jennifer Walters // The Sensational She-Hulk 1 —
Kinnan, Bonder Prodigy 1 7 mana: look at 5, take one
Legolas's Quick Reflexes 1 —
Loki's Scepter 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Lotho, Corrupt Shirriff 1 —
Lotus Petal 1 tap, sacrifice: adds 1 mana
Mana Vault 1 tap: adds 3 mana
Marvin, Murderous Mimic 1 —
Mental Misstep 1 —
Mindbreak Trap 1 —
Mox Amber 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Mox Diamond 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Mox Opal 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Mystic Remora 1 —
Noble Hierarch 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Orcish Bowmasters 1 —
Pact of Negation 1 —
Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer 1 —
Relic of Legends 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Rhystic Study 1 —
Samut, Hazoret's Champion 1 —
Selvala, Heart of the Wilds 1 1 mana, tap: adds 0 mana
Shang-Chi, Master of Kung Fu 1 —
Silence 1 —
Simian Spirit Guide 1 —
Sisay, Weatherlight Captain 1 5 mana: search for a legendary card
Smothering Tithe 1 —
Sol Ring 1 tap: adds 2 mana
Suspend 1 —
Swan Song 1 —
Tataru Taru 1 when it enters: draw 1
Teferi, Time Raveler 1 —
Touch the Spirit Realm 1 —
Tyvar, Jubilant Brawler 1 —
Vampiric Tutor 1 —
Wan Shi Tong, Librarian 1 —
Worldly Tutor 1 search for a creature card

Result

Write how many copies of the cards you want are in the deck.

Combos in hand

Chance to have every piece of a combo by turn 3: the combos from Commander Spellbook with every card in the main deck.

Mana sources

Lands and other sources of one color you need in 100 cards to cast a spell on curve: C is one symbol of that color in the cost, CC two, CCC three.

Sources for a 90% chance by that turn, on the play
CostTurn 1Turn 2Turn 3Turn 4Turn 5Turn 6
C252220181716
CC—3633302826
CCC——44413835

A land every turn

Chance to play a land on each turn up to that one: at least one land by turn 1, two by turn 2, and so on.

28 lands in the 100 cards of the deck.

Sisay, Weatherlight Captain decks play 27.8 lands on average, all Commander decks 27.4 (last 90 days).

A land drop on every turn up to that one
Up to turnOn the playOn the drawToo fewToo many
193.6%93.6%6.4%3.7%
277.9%77.9%22.1%1.4%
357.0%57.0%43.0%0.5%
436.9%36.9%63.1%0.1%
521.3%21.3%55.4%0.0%
611.1%11.1%47.8%0.0%
75.3%5.3%40.7%0.0%
82.3%2.3%34.2%0.0%
90.9%0.9%28.4%0.0%
100.3%0.3%23.2%0.0%

Casting on curve

For each spell of the deck: chance to have, on the turn equal to its mana value, that many lands and enough lands of its colors. Hybrid and Phyrexian symbols don’t count; other mana sources (creatures, artifacts) neither.

From the riskiest spell
CardCostTurnOn the playOn the draw
Colossal Skyturtle75.3%5.3%
Force of Will519.9%19.9%
Chord of Calling325.7%25.7%
Emiel the Blessed426.5%26.5%
Mindbreak Trap431.6%31.6%
Deadpool, Trading Card433.4%33.4%
Ertai Resurrected435.0%35.0%
Smothering Tithe435.1%35.1%
Wan Shi Tong, Librarian244.0%44.0%
Enduring Vitality346.6%46.6%
Esika, God of the Tree // The Prismatic Bridge346.6%46.6%
Selvala, Heart of the Wilds346.6%46.6%
Derevi, Empyrial Tactician348.8%48.8%
Teferi, Time Raveler349.8%49.8%
Deflecting Swat350.2%50.2%
Loki's Scepter350.2%50.2%
Simian Spirit Guide350.2%50.2%
Sisay, Weatherlight Captain351.6%51.6%
Touch the Spirit Realm351.6%51.6%
Tyvar, Jubilant Brawler351.7%51.7%
Fierce Guardianship354.6%54.6%
Ioreth of the Healing House354.6%54.6%
Rhystic Study354.6%54.6%
Elvish Spirit Guide355.8%55.8%
Ashiok, Dream Render357.0%57.0%
Dismember357.0%57.0%
Relic of Legends357.0%57.0%
Lotho, Corrupt Shirriff258.6%58.6%
Eladamri's Call261.6%61.6%
Samut, Hazoret's Champion262.4%62.4%
Abrupt Decay263.2%63.2%
Gleaming Splendor264.9%64.9%
Jennifer Walters // The Sensational She-Hulk264.9%64.9%
Tataru Taru264.9%64.9%
Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer165.5%65.5%
Kinnan, Bonder Prodigy266.4%66.4%
Demonic Tutor267.0%67.0%
Orcish Bowmasters267.0%67.0%
Deafening Silence168.6%68.6%
Enlightened Tutor168.6%68.6%
Esper Sentinel168.6%68.6%
Silence168.6%68.6%
Cyclonic Rift270.6%70.6%
Imposter Mech270.6%70.6%
Vampiric Tutor171.5%71.5%
Bloom Tender273.3%73.3%
Shang-Chi, Master of Kung Fu273.3%73.3%
An Offer You Can't Refuse176.6%76.6%
Flusterstorm176.6%76.6%
Into the Flood Maw176.6%76.6%
Mystic Remora176.6%76.6%
Suspend176.6%76.6%
Swan Song176.6%76.6%
Agatha's Soul Cauldron277.9%77.9%
Arcane Signet277.9%77.9%
Marvin, Murderous Mimic277.9%77.9%
Birds of Paradise180.8%80.8%
Crop Rotation180.8%80.8%
Delighted Halfling180.8%80.8%
Ignoble Hierarch180.8%80.8%
Legolas's Quick Reflexes180.8%80.8%
Noble Hierarch180.8%80.8%
Worldly Tutor180.8%80.8%
Mana Vault193.6%93.6%
Mental Misstep193.6%93.6%
Sol Ring193.6%93.6%