Land Drop
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Hypergeometric calculator

Chance to have the cards you need by a given turn: one or more groups of cards, each with a minimum or a range of copies, all together or at least one. Count the copies yourself or from a deck. How it works

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Counting from Sisay, Weatherlight Captain · Cody Wickman · Commander Invitational Qualifier Cardboard Battlegrounds: 100 cards in the main deck.

Starting
More options: extra draws, mulligans, players
Conditions to meet
Condition 1
More conditions
Condition 2
Condition 3
Condition 4
Compare with

In place of cards of no condition: the deck keeps its size.

The 100 cards of the deck (100 different): conditions and effects
Which condition each card of the main deck counts for: the copies of a condition become the sum of its cards.
CardCopiesConditionIn the simulation
Ancient Tomb 1 —
Bayou 1 —
Boseiju, Who Endures 1 —
City of Brass 1 —
Command Tower 1 —
Exotic Orchard 1 —
Flooded Strand 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a plains / island card
Gaea's Cradle 1 —
Gemstone Caverns 1 —
Mana Confluence 1 —
Marsh Flats 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a plains / swamp card
Misty Rainforest 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a forest / island card
Mount Doom 1 —
Otawara, Soaring City 1 —
Plateau 1 —
Polluted Delta 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a island / swamp card
Savannah 1 —
Scalding Tarn 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a island / mountain card
Scrubland 1 —
Taiga 1 —
Tarnished Citadel 1 —
Tropical Island 1 —
Tundra 1 —
Underground Sea 1 —
Verdant Catacombs 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a swamp / forest card
Volcanic Island 1 —
Windswept Heath 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a forest / plains card
Wooded Foothills 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a mountain / forest card
Abrupt Decay 1 —
Agatha's Soul Cauldron 1 —
Arcane Signet 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Badgermole Cub 1 —
Birds of Paradise 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Bloom Tender 1 —
Chord of Calling 1 search for a creature card
Chrome Mox 1 —
Cryptolith Rite 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Cyclonic Rift 1 —
Deadpool, Trading Card 1 —
Deathrite Shaman 1 —
Deflecting Swat 1 —
Delighted Halfling 1 tap: adds 1 mana; tap: adds 1 mana
Demonic Tutor 1 —
Derevi, Empyrial Tactician 1 —
Eladamri's Call 1 search for a creature card
Emiel the Blessed 1 —
Enduring Vitality 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Enlightened Tutor 1 search for a artifact / enchantment card
Esika, God of the Tree // The Prismatic Bridge 1 tap: adds 1 mana; tap: adds 1 mana
Esper Sentinel 1 —
Fellwar Stone 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Fierce Guardianship 1 —
Flusterstorm 1 —
Force of Will 1 —
Gleaming Splendor 1 —
Ignoble Hierarch 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Imposter Mech 1 —
Ioreth of the Healing House 1 —
Katilda, Dawnhart Prime 1 —
King T'Challa // Black Panther, Hope Enduring 1 —
Kinnan, Bonder Prodigy 1 7 mana: look at 5, take one
Lavinia, Azorius Renegade 1 —
Legolas's Quick Reflexes 1 —
Loki's Scepter 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Lotho, Corrupt Shirriff 1 —
Lotus Petal 1 tap, sacrifice: adds 1 mana
Mana Vault 1 tap: adds 3 mana
Marvin, Murderous Mimic 1 —
Mental Misstep 1 —
Mindbreak Trap 1 —
Mockingbird 1 —
Mox Amber 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Mox Diamond 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Mystic Remora 1 —
Nature's Rhythm 1 search for a creature card
Noble Hierarch 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Orim's Chant 1 —
Pact of Negation 1 —
Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer 1 —
Ranger-Captain of Eos 1 when it enters: search for a creature card
Relic of Legends 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Rhystic Study 1 —
Sakashima the Impostor 1 —
Samut, Hazoret's Champion 1 —
Selvala, Heart of the Wilds 1 1 mana, tap: adds 0 mana
Shang-Chi, Master of Kung Fu 1 —
Silence 1 —
Sisay, Weatherlight Captain 1 5 mana: search for a legendary card
Smothering Tithe 1 —
Sol Ring 1 tap: adds 2 mana
Swan Song 1 —
Swords to Plowshares 1 —
Tataru Taru 1 when it enters: draw 1
Teferi, Time Raveler 1 —
Teferi, Who Slows the Sunset 1 —
The Cabbage Merchant 1 —
The Queen of Dale 1 —
Tyvar, Jubilant Brawler 1 —
Vampiric Tutor 1 —
Wan Shi Tong, Librarian 1 —

Result

Write how many copies of the cards you want are in the deck.

Combos in hand

Chance to have every piece of a combo by turn 3: the combos from Commander Spellbook with every card in the main deck.

Mana sources

Lands and other sources of one color you need in 100 cards to cast a spell on curve: C is one symbol of that color in the cost, CC two, CCC three.

Sources for a 90% chance by that turn, on the play
CostTurn 1Turn 2Turn 3Turn 4Turn 5Turn 6
C252220181716
CC—3633302826
CCC——44413835

A land every turn

Chance to play a land on each turn up to that one: at least one land by turn 1, two by turn 2, and so on.

28 lands in the 100 cards of the deck.

Sisay, Weatherlight Captain decks play 27.8 lands on average, all Commander decks 27.3 (last 90 days).

A land drop on every turn up to that one
Up to turnOn the playOn the drawToo fewToo many
193.6%93.6%6.4%3.7%
277.9%77.9%22.1%1.4%
357.0%57.0%43.0%0.5%
436.9%36.9%63.1%0.1%
521.3%21.3%55.4%0.0%
611.1%11.1%47.8%0.0%
75.3%5.3%40.7%0.0%
82.3%2.3%34.2%0.0%
90.9%0.9%28.4%0.0%
100.3%0.3%23.2%0.0%

Casting on curve

For each spell of the deck: chance to have, on the turn equal to its mana value, that many lands and enough lands of its colors. Hybrid and Phyrexian symbols don’t count; other mana sources (creatures, artifacts) neither.

From the riskiest spell
CardCostTurnOn the playOn the draw
Force of Will519.3%19.3%
Chord of Calling319.8%19.8%
Emiel the Blessed426.5%26.5%
Mindbreak Trap430.1%30.1%
Sakashima the Impostor430.1%30.1%
Deadpool, Trading Card432.8%32.8%
Ranger-Captain of Eos333.0%33.0%
Teferi, Who Slows the Sunset434.2%34.2%
Smothering Tithe435.1%35.1%
Wan Shi Tong, Librarian240.4%40.4%
Enduring Vitality341.7%41.7%
Esika, God of the Tree // The Prismatic Bridge341.7%41.7%
Selvala, Heart of the Wilds341.7%41.7%
Nature's Rhythm244.0%44.0%
Derevi, Empyrial Tactician347.0%47.0%
King T'Challa // Black Panther, Hope Enduring349.0%49.0%
Teferi, Time Raveler349.0%49.0%
Tyvar, Jubilant Brawler349.6%49.6%
Deflecting Swat350.2%50.2%
Loki's Scepter350.2%50.2%
Sisay, Weatherlight Captain351.6%51.6%
Fierce Guardianship353.8%53.8%
Ioreth of the Healing House353.8%53.8%
Rhystic Study353.8%53.8%
The Cabbage Merchant354.6%54.6%
Lotho, Corrupt Shirriff256.4%56.4%
Relic of Legends357.0%57.0%
Lavinia, Azorius Renegade258.5%58.5%
Abrupt Decay259.5%59.5%
Eladamri's Call259.5%59.5%
Katilda, Dawnhart Prime259.5%59.5%
Samut, Hazoret's Champion262.4%62.4%
Kinnan, Bonder Prodigy262.4%62.4%
Demonic Tutor264.9%64.9%
Gleaming Splendor264.9%64.9%
Tataru Taru264.9%64.9%
The Queen of Dale264.9%64.9%
Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer165.5%65.5%
Enlightened Tutor168.6%68.6%
Esper Sentinel168.6%68.6%
Orim's Chant168.6%68.6%
Silence168.6%68.6%
Swords to Plowshares168.6%68.6%
Vampiric Tutor168.6%68.6%
Cyclonic Rift268.9%68.9%
Imposter Mech268.9%68.9%
Badgermole Cub270.6%70.6%
Bloom Tender270.6%70.6%
Cryptolith Rite270.6%70.6%
Shang-Chi, Master of Kung Fu270.6%70.6%
Flusterstorm174.1%74.1%
Mockingbird174.1%74.1%
Mystic Remora174.1%74.1%
Swan Song174.1%74.1%
Birds of Paradise176.6%76.6%
Delighted Halfling176.6%76.6%
Ignoble Hierarch176.6%76.6%
Legolas's Quick Reflexes176.6%76.6%
Noble Hierarch176.6%76.6%
Agatha's Soul Cauldron277.9%77.9%
Arcane Signet277.9%77.9%
Fellwar Stone277.9%77.9%
Marvin, Murderous Mimic277.9%77.9%
Deathrite Shaman193.6%93.6%
Mana Vault193.6%93.6%
Mental Misstep193.6%93.6%
Sol Ring193.6%93.6%