Land Drop
Log in Sign up

Hypergeometric calculator

Chance to have the cards you need by a given turn: one or more groups of cards, each with a minimum or a range of copies, all together or at least one. Count the copies yourself or from a deck. How it works

Saved variants

Reset

Saved in this browser, up to 10: sign in and they move to your account.

Paste a decklist

Counting from Ral, Monsoon Mage · Jason Hamilton · cEDH Tournament for a Wheel of Fortune: 100 cards in the main deck.

Starting
More options: extra draws, mulligans, players
Conditions to meet
Condition 1
More conditions
Condition 2
Condition 3
Condition 4
Compare with

In place of cards of no condition: the deck keeps its size.

The 100 cards of the deck (100 different): conditions and effects
Which condition each card of the main deck counts for: the copies of a condition become the sum of its cards.
CardCopiesConditionIn the simulation
Ancient Tomb 1 —
Arid Mesa 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a mountain / plains card
Bloodstained Mire 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a swamp / mountain card
City of Traitors 1 —
Flooded Strand 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a plains / island card
Gemstone Caverns 1 —
Great Furnace 1 —
Misty Rainforest 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a forest / island card
Mountain 1 —
Polluted Delta 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a island / swamp card
Scalding Tarn 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a island / mountain card
Sea Gate Restoration // Sea Gate, Reborn 1 —
Shatterskull Smashing // Shatterskull, the Hammer Pass 1 —
Steam Vents 1 —
Training Center 1 —
Valakut Awakening // Valakut Stoneforge 1 —
Volcanic Island 1 —
Wooded Foothills 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a mountain / forest card
Abandon Attachments 1 draw 2
An Offer You Can't Refuse 1 —
Birgi, God of Storytelling // Harnfel, Horn of Bounty 1 —
Bonus Round 1 —
Boomerang Basics 1 draw 1
Brain Freeze 1 —
Chain of Vapor 1 —
Chrome Mox 1 —
Daze 1 —
Deflecting Swat 1 —
Demand Answers 1 draw 2
Desperate Ritual 1 adds 3 mana
Echo of Eons 1 —
Electro, Assaulting Battery 1 —
Faithless Looting 1 draw 2
Fierce Guardianship 1 —
Finale of Promise 1 —
Flare of Duplication 1 —
Flusterstorm 1 —
Frantic Search 1 draw 2
Gamble 1 —
Geistwave 1 draw 1
Gitaxian Probe 1 draw 1
Grapeshot 1 —
Gut Shot 1 —
Hidden Strings 1 —
Highway Robbery 1 draw 2
Intuition 1 —
Jeska's Will 1 —
Kari Zev's Expertise 1 —
Lava Dart 1 —
Lion's Eye Diamond 1 —
Lotus Petal 1 tap, sacrifice: adds 1 mana
Mana Vault 1 tap: adds 3 mana
Mental Misstep 1 —
Mind's Desire 1 —
Mox Amber 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Mox Diamond 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Mox Opal 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Mystical Tutor 1 search for a instant / sorcery card
Opera Love Song 1 —
Overmaster 1 draw 1
Pact of Negation 1 —
Past in Flames 1 —
Pyretic Ritual 1 adds 3 mana
Pyroblast 1 —
Quiet Speculation 1 —
Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer 1 —
Ral, Monsoon Mage // Ral, Leyline Prodigy 1 —
Recall 1 —
Reckless Impulse 1 —
Recoup 1 —
Red Elemental Blast 1 —
Reiterate 1 —
Return the Favor 1 —
Rite of Flame 1 adds 2 mana
Romantic Rendezvous 1 draw 2
Runaway Steam-Kin 1 —
Samut, Tyrant of Naktamun 1 —
Seething Song 1 adds 5 mana
Seize the Spoils 1 draw 2
Simian Spirit Guide 1 —
Snap 1 —
Sol Ring 1 tap: adds 2 mana
Springleaf Drum 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Storm-Kiln Artist 1 —
Strike It Rich 1 —
Tavern Scoundrel 1 —
Tibalt's Trickery 1 —
Timetwister 1 —
Treasonous Ogre 1 —
Twinferno 1 —
Underworld Breach 1 —
Untimely Malfunction 1 —
Vexing Bauble 1 —
Wheel of Fortune 1 —
Will of the Jeskai 1 draw 5
Windfall 1 —
Witch's Mark 1 draw 2
Wrenn's Resolve 1 —
Zoyowa's Justice 1 —
_____ Goblin 1 —

Result

Write how many copies of the cards you want are in the deck.

Combos in hand

Chance to have every piece of a combo by turn 3: the combos from Commander Spellbook with every card in the main deck.

Mana sources

Lands and other sources of one color you need in 100 cards to cast a spell on curve: C is one symbol of that color in the cost, CC two, CCC three.

Sources for a 90% chance by that turn, on the play
CostTurn 1Turn 2Turn 3Turn 4Turn 5Turn 6
C252220181716
CC—3633302826
CCC——44413835

A land every turn

Chance to play a land on each turn up to that one: at least one land by turn 1, two by turn 2, and so on.

18 lands in the 100 cards of the deck.

Ral, Monsoon Mage decks play 21.2 lands on average, all Commander decks 27.3 (last 90 days).

A land drop on every turn up to that one
Up to turnOn the playOn the drawToo fewToo many
180.8%80.8%19.2%0.4%
250.9%50.9%49.1%0.1%
325.7%25.7%74.3%0.0%
410.7%10.7%89.3%0.0%
53.8%3.8%85.8%0.0%
61.2%1.2%81.9%0.0%
70.3%0.3%77.7%0.0%
80.1%0.1%73.2%0.0%
90.0%0.0%68.5%0.0%
100.0%0.0%63.6%0.0%

Casting on curve

For each spell of the deck: chance to have, on the turn equal to its mana value, that many lands and enough lands of its colors. Hybrid and Phyrexian symbols don’t count; other mana sources (creatures, artifacts) neither.

From the riskiest spell
CardCostTurnOn the playOn the draw
Echo of Eons61.1%1.1%
Mind's Desire61.1%1.1%
Past in Flames410.7%10.7%
Storm-Kiln Artist410.7%10.7%
Treasonous Ogre410.7%10.7%
Will of the Jeskai410.7%10.7%
Bonus Round320.7%20.7%
Electro, Assaulting Battery320.7%20.7%
Flare of Duplication320.7%20.7%
Kari Zev's Expertise320.7%20.7%
Reiterate320.7%20.7%
Fierce Guardianship323.5%23.5%
Frantic Search323.5%23.5%
Intuition323.5%23.5%
Timetwister323.5%23.5%
Windfall323.5%23.5%
Birgi, God of Storytelling // Harnfel, Horn of Bounty325.2%25.2%
Deflecting Swat325.2%25.2%
Jeska's Will325.2%25.2%
Seething Song325.2%25.2%
Seize the Spoils325.2%25.2%
Simian Spirit Guide325.2%25.2%
Wheel of Fortune325.2%25.2%
_____ Goblin325.2%25.2%
Finale of Promise229.4%29.4%
Return the Favor229.4%29.4%
Brain Freeze241.9%41.9%
Daze241.9%41.9%
Geistwave241.9%41.9%
Hidden Strings241.9%41.9%
Quiet Speculation241.9%41.9%
Samut, Tyrant of Naktamun241.9%41.9%
Snap241.9%41.9%
Demand Answers247.5%47.5%
Desperate Ritual247.5%47.5%
Grapeshot247.5%47.5%
Highway Robbery247.5%47.5%
Opera Love Song247.5%47.5%
Pyretic Ritual247.5%47.5%
Ral, Monsoon Mage // Ral, Leyline Prodigy247.5%47.5%
Reckless Impulse247.5%47.5%
Recoup247.5%47.5%
Romantic Rendezvous247.5%47.5%
Runaway Steam-Kin247.5%47.5%
Tavern Scoundrel247.5%47.5%
Tibalt's Trickery247.5%47.5%
Twinferno247.5%47.5%
Underworld Breach247.5%47.5%
Untimely Malfunction247.5%47.5%
Witch's Mark247.5%47.5%
Wrenn's Resolve247.5%47.5%
Zoyowa's Justice247.5%47.5%
Abandon Attachments250.9%50.9%
An Offer You Can't Refuse154.3%54.3%
Boomerang Basics154.3%54.3%
Chain of Vapor154.3%54.3%
Flusterstorm154.3%54.3%
Mystical Tutor154.3%54.3%
Recall154.3%54.3%
Faithless Looting165.5%65.5%
Gamble165.5%65.5%
Lava Dart165.5%65.5%
Overmaster165.5%65.5%
Pyroblast165.5%65.5%
Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer165.5%65.5%
Red Elemental Blast165.5%65.5%
Rite of Flame165.5%65.5%
Strike It Rich165.5%65.5%
Gitaxian Probe180.8%80.8%
Gut Shot180.8%80.8%
Mana Vault180.8%80.8%
Mental Misstep180.8%80.8%
Sol Ring180.8%80.8%
Springleaf Drum180.8%80.8%
Vexing Bauble180.8%80.8%