Land Drop
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Hypergeometric calculator

Chance to have the cards you need by a given turn: one or more groups of cards, each with a minimum or a range of copies, all together or at least one. Count the copies yourself or from a deck. How it works

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Counting from Nick Fury, Agent of S.H.I.E.L.D. · Tyler Stupalsky · Ohio cEDH: Highlander 3: 100 cards in the main deck.

Starting
More options: extra draws, mulligans, players
Conditions to meet
Condition 1
More conditions
Condition 2
Condition 3
Condition 4
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In place of cards of no condition: the deck keeps its size.

The 100 cards of the deck (100 different): conditions and effects
Which condition each card of the main deck counts for: the copies of a condition become the sum of its cards.
CardCopiesConditionIn the simulation
Ancient Tomb 1 —
Arid Mesa 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a mountain / plains card
Badlands 1 —
Bloodstained Mire 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a swamp / mountain card
City of Brass 1 —
City of Traitors 1 —
Command Tower 1 —
Exotic Orchard 1 —
Flooded Strand 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a plains / island card
Forbidden Orchard 1 —
Gemstone Caverns 1 —
Mana Confluence 1 —
Marsh Flats 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a plains / swamp card
Misty Rainforest 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a forest / island card
Plateau 1 —
Polluted Delta 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a island / swamp card
Scalding Tarn 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a island / mountain card
Scrubland 1 —
Starting Town 1 —
Tarnished Citadel 1 —
Tundra 1 —
Underground Sea 1 —
Verdant Catacombs 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a swamp / forest card
Volcanic Island 1 —
Windswept Heath 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a forest / plains card
Ad Nauseam 1 —
An Offer You Can't Refuse 1 —
Arcane Signet 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Beseech the Mirror 1 —
Borne Upon a Wind 1 draw 1
Brain Freeze 1 —
Cabal Ritual 1 adds 3 mana
Chain of Vapor 1 —
Chrome Mox 1 —
Culling Ritual 1 —
Culling the Weak 1 adds 4 mana
Dark Ritual 1 adds 3 mana
Deathrite Shaman 1 —
Deflecting Swat 1 —
Demonic Consultation 1 —
Demonic Tutor 1 —
Diabolic Intent 1 —
Elvish Spirit Guide 1 —
Enlightened Tutor 1 search for a artifact / enchantment card
Esper Sentinel 1 —
Fellwar Stone 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Fierce Guardianship 1 —
Final Fortune 1 —
Flash Photography 1 —
Flusterstorm 1 —
Force of Negation 1 —
Force of Will 1 —
Gamble 1 —
Gitaxian Probe 1 draw 1
Gleaming Splendor 1 —
Grinding Station 1 —
Hexing Squelcher 1 —
Imperial Seal 1 —
Intuition 1 —
Jennifer Walters // The Sensational She-Hulk 1 —
Lion's Eye Diamond 1 —
Lotho, Corrupt Shirriff 1 —
Lotus Petal 1 tap, sacrifice: adds 1 mana
Mana Vault 1 tap: adds 3 mana
Manamorphose 1 adds 2 mana; draw 1
Mental Misstep 1 —
Mindbreak Trap 1 —
Mockingbird 1 —
Mox Amber 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Mox Diamond 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Mox Opal 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Mystic Remora 1 —
Mystical Tutor 1 search for a instant / sorcery card
Necropotence 1 —
Nick Fury, Agent of S.H.I.E.L.D. 1 5 mana: look at 7, take one
Orim's Chant 1 —
Pact of Negation 1 —
Praetor's Grasp 1 —
Pyroblast 1 —
Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer 1 —
Red Elemental Blast 1 —
Rhystic Study 1 —
Rite of Flame 1 adds 2 mana
Sevinne's Reclamation 1 —
Silence 1 —
Simian Spirit Guide 1 —
Smothering Tithe 1 —
Snapback 1 —
Sol Ring 1 tap: adds 2 mana
Springleaf Drum 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Swan Song 1 —
Tainted Pact 1 —
Tataru Taru 1 when it enters: draw 1
Thassa's Oracle 1 —
The Queen of Dale 1 —
Tinder Wall 1 sacrifice: adds 2 mana
Underworld Breach 1 —
Valley Floodcaller 1 —
Vampiric Tutor 1 —
Wishclaw Talisman 1 —

Result

Write how many copies of the cards you want are in the deck.

Mana sources

Lands and other sources of one color you need in 100 cards to cast a spell on curve: C is one symbol of that color in the cost, CC two, CCC three.

Sources for a 90% chance by that turn, on the play
CostTurn 1Turn 2Turn 3Turn 4Turn 5Turn 6
C252220181716
CC—3633302826
CCC——44413835

A land every turn

Chance to play a land on each turn up to that one: at least one land by turn 1, two by turn 2, and so on.

25 lands in the 100 cards of the deck.

Nick Fury, Agent of S.H.I.E.L.D. decks play 25.3 lands on average, all Commander decks 27.3 (last 90 days).

A land drop on every turn up to that one
Up to turnOn the playOn the drawToo fewToo many
190.9%90.9%9.1%2.2%
271.2%71.2%28.8%0.7%
347.8%47.8%52.2%0.2%
427.9%27.9%72.1%0.1%
514.4%14.4%65.3%0.0%
66.6%6.6%58.4%0.0%
72.7%2.7%51.7%0.0%
81.0%1.0%45.1%0.0%
90.4%0.4%39.0%0.0%
100.1%0.1%33.3%0.0%

Casting on curve

For each spell of the deck: chance to have, on the turn equal to its mana value, that many lands and enough lands of its colors. Hybrid and Phyrexian symbols don’t count; other mana sources (creatures, artifacts) neither.

From the riskiest spell
CardCostTurnOn the playOn the draw
Ad Nauseam513.6%13.6%
Force of Will513.6%13.6%
Beseech the Mirror415.9%15.9%
Necropotence317.1%17.1%
Flash Photography424.6%24.6%
Mindbreak Trap424.6%24.6%
Culling Ritual426.0%26.0%
Smothering Tithe427.6%27.6%
Force of Negation336.0%36.0%
Praetor's Grasp336.0%36.0%
Final Fortune236.8%36.8%
Thassa's Oracle240.4%40.4%
Elvish Spirit Guide342.3%42.3%
Deflecting Swat345.5%45.5%
Simian Spirit Guide345.5%45.5%
Fierce Guardianship346.2%46.2%
Intuition346.2%46.2%
Rhystic Study346.2%46.2%
Sevinne's Reclamation346.2%46.2%
Valley Floodcaller346.2%46.2%
Lotho, Corrupt Shirriff260.0%60.0%
Tinder Wall162.0%62.0%
Hexing Squelcher263.4%63.4%
Underworld Breach263.4%63.4%
Borne Upon a Wind265.1%65.1%
Brain Freeze265.1%65.1%
Cabal Ritual265.1%65.1%
Demonic Tutor265.1%65.1%
Diabolic Intent265.1%65.1%
Gleaming Splendor265.1%65.1%
Jennifer Walters // The Sensational She-Hulk265.1%65.1%
Snapback265.1%65.1%
Tainted Pact265.1%65.1%
Tataru Taru265.1%65.1%
The Queen of Dale265.1%65.1%
Wishclaw Talisman265.1%65.1%
Arcane Signet271.2%71.2%
Fellwar Stone271.2%71.2%
Grinding Station271.2%71.2%
Manamorphose271.2%71.2%
Gamble171.5%71.5%
Pyroblast171.5%71.5%
Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer171.5%71.5%
Red Elemental Blast171.5%71.5%
Rite of Flame171.5%71.5%
An Offer You Can't Refuse174.1%74.1%
Chain of Vapor174.1%74.1%
Culling the Weak174.1%74.1%
Dark Ritual174.1%74.1%
Demonic Consultation174.1%74.1%
Enlightened Tutor174.1%74.1%
Esper Sentinel174.1%74.1%
Flusterstorm174.1%74.1%
Imperial Seal174.1%74.1%
Mockingbird174.1%74.1%
Mystic Remora174.1%74.1%
Mystical Tutor174.1%74.1%
Nick Fury, Agent of S.H.I.E.L.D.174.1%74.1%
Orim's Chant174.1%74.1%
Silence174.1%74.1%
Swan Song174.1%74.1%
Vampiric Tutor174.1%74.1%
Deathrite Shaman190.9%90.9%
Gitaxian Probe190.9%90.9%
Mana Vault190.9%90.9%
Mental Misstep190.9%90.9%
Sol Ring190.9%90.9%
Springleaf Drum190.9%90.9%