Land Drop
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Hypergeometric calculator

Chance to have the cards you need by a given turn: one or more groups of cards, each with a minimum or a range of copies, all together or at least one. Count the copies yourself or from a deck. How it works

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Counting from Kinnan, Bonder Prodigy · Ashton Brown [MEDCITY] · North Star's Monthly CEDH: 100 cards in the main deck.

Starting
More options: extra draws, mulligans, players
Conditions to meet
Condition 1
More conditions
Condition 2
Condition 3
Condition 4
Compare with

In place of cards of no condition: the deck keeps its size.

The 100 cards of the deck (100 different): conditions and effects
Which condition each card of the main deck counts for: the copies of a condition become the sum of its cards.
CardCopiesConditionIn the simulation
Ancient Tomb 1 —
Boseiju, Who Endures 1 —
Breeding Pool 1 —
City of Brass 1 —
Command Tower 1 —
Emergence Zone 1 —
Flooded Strand 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a plains / island card
Forest 1 —
Gaea's Cradle 1 —
Gemstone Caverns 1 —
Island 1 —
Mana Confluence 1 —
Mistrise Village 1 —
Misty Rainforest 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a forest / island card
Otawara, Soaring City 1 —
Polluted Delta 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a island / swamp card
Rejuvenating Springs 1 —
Scalding Tarn 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a island / mountain card
Shifting Woodland 1 —
Sink into Stupor // Soporific Springs 1 —
Talon Gates of Madara 1 —
Treasure Vault 1 —
Tropical Island 1 —
Verdant Catacombs 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a swamp / forest card
Waterlogged Grove 1 —
Windswept Heath 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a forest / plains card
Yavimaya Coast 1 —
Agatha's Soul Cauldron 1 —
An Offer You Can't Refuse 1 —
Arcane Signet 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Badgermole Cub 1 —
Basalt Monolith 1 tap: adds 3 mana
Birds of Paradise 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Bloom Tender 1 —
Borne Upon a Wind 1 draw 1
Chord of Calling 1 search for a creature card
Chrome Mox 1 —
Citanul Stalwart 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Clever Impersonator 1 —
Crop Rotation 1 search for a land card
Cryptolith Rite 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Delighted Halfling 1 tap: adds 1 mana; tap: adds 1 mana
Elvish Mystic 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Elvish Spirit Guide 1 —
Endurance 1 —
Enduring Vitality 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Fabricate 1 search for a artifact card
Faerie Mastermind 1 —
Fellwar Stone 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Fierce Guardianship 1 —
Finale of Devastation 1 —
Flusterstorm 1 —
Force of Will 1 —
Formidable Speaker 1 when it enters: search for a creature card
Freed from the Real 1 —
Fyndhorn Elves 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Gene Pollinator 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Green Sun's Zenith 1 search for a green creature card
Horseshoe Crab 1 —
Into the Flood Maw 1 —
Invasion of Ikoria // Zilortha, Apex of Ikoria 1 —
Jaspera Sentinel 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Kinnan, Bonder Prodigy 1 7 mana: look at 5, take one
Knacksaw Clique 1 —
Legolas's Quick Reflexes 1 —
Llanowar Elves 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Lotus Petal 1 tap, sacrifice: adds 1 mana
Marvin, Murderous Mimic 1 —
Mental Misstep 1 —
Mindbreak Trap 1 —
Mirage Mirror 1 —
Mockingbird 1 —
Mox Amber 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Mox Diamond 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Mox Opal 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Mystic Remora 1 —
Nature's Rhythm 1 search for a creature card
Noxious Revival 1 —
Nyxbloom Ancient 1 —
Pact of Negation 1 —
Pili-Pala 1 2 mana: adds 1 mana
Priest of Titania 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Rhystic Study 1 —
Riptide Shapeshifter 1 —
Sanctum Weaver 1 —
Savage Summoning 1 —
Scour for Scrap 1 search for a artifact card
Shang-Chi, Master of Kung Fu 1 —
Sol Ring 1 tap: adds 2 mana
Springleaf Drum 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Summoner's Pact 1 search for a green creature card
Talisman of Curiosity 1 tap: adds 1 mana; tap: adds 1 mana
The Unbeatable Squirrel Girl 1 —
Thrasios, Triton Hero 1 4 mana: scry 1; 4 mana: draw 1
Transmute Artifact 1 search for a artifact card
Trinisphere 1 —
Twincast 1 —
Veil of Summer 1 draw 1
Woodland Bellower 1 when it enters: search for a nonlegendary green creature card
Worldly Tutor 1 search for a creature card

Result

Write how many copies of the cards you want are in the deck.

Combos in hand

Chance to have every piece of a combo by turn 3: the combos from Commander Spellbook with every card in the main deck.

Mana sources

Lands and other sources of one color you need in 100 cards to cast a spell on curve: C is one symbol of that color in the cost, CC two, CCC three.

Sources for a 90% chance by that turn, on the play
CostTurn 1Turn 2Turn 3Turn 4Turn 5Turn 6
C252220181716
CC—3633302826
CCC——44413835

A land every turn

Chance to play a land on each turn up to that one: at least one land by turn 1, two by turn 2, and so on.

27 lands in the 100 cards of the deck.

Kinnan, Bonder Prodigy decks play 25.9 lands on average, all Commander decks 27.3 (last 90 days).

A land drop on every turn up to that one
Up to turnOn the playOn the drawToo fewToo many
192.8%92.8%7.2%3.2%
275.8%75.8%24.2%1.1%
354.0%54.0%46.0%0.4%
433.8%33.8%66.2%0.1%
518.8%18.8%58.7%0.0%
69.5%9.5%51.3%0.0%
74.3%4.3%44.3%0.0%
81.8%1.8%37.7%0.0%
90.7%0.7%31.7%0.0%
100.2%0.2%26.3%0.0%

Casting on curve

For each spell of the deck: chance to have, on the turn equal to its mana value, that many lands and enough lands of its colors. Hybrid and Phyrexian symbols don’t count; other mana sources (creatures, artifacts) neither.

From the riskiest spell
CardCostTurnOn the playOn the draw
Nyxbloom Ancient74.2%4.2%
Woodland Bellower69.3%9.3%
Force of Will518.4%18.4%
Riptide Shapeshifter518.4%18.4%
The Unbeatable Squirrel Girl421.4%21.4%
Chord of Calling322.7%22.7%
Clever Impersonator431.6%31.6%
Mindbreak Trap431.6%31.6%
Knacksaw Clique433.7%33.7%
Scour for Scrap433.7%33.7%
Endurance343.1%43.1%
Enduring Vitality343.1%43.1%
Finale of Devastation247.5%47.5%
Invasion of Ikoria // Zilortha, Apex of Ikoria247.5%47.5%
Nature's Rhythm247.5%47.5%
Transmute Artifact250.9%50.9%
Twincast250.9%50.9%
Elvish Spirit Guide352.7%52.7%
Formidable Speaker352.7%52.7%
Fabricate353.1%53.1%
Fierce Guardianship353.1%53.1%
Freed from the Real353.1%53.1%
Horseshoe Crab353.1%53.1%
Rhystic Study353.1%53.1%
Basalt Monolith354.0%54.0%
Mirage Mirror354.0%54.0%
Trinisphere354.0%54.0%
Kinnan, Bonder Prodigy267.0%67.0%
Thrasios, Triton Hero267.0%67.0%
Badgermole Cub270.7%70.7%
Bloom Tender270.7%70.7%
Cryptolith Rite270.7%70.7%
Priest of Titania270.7%70.7%
Sanctum Weaver270.7%70.7%
Shang-Chi, Master of Kung Fu270.7%70.7%
Borne Upon a Wind271.9%71.9%
Faerie Mastermind271.9%71.9%
Agatha's Soul Cauldron275.8%75.8%
Arcane Signet275.8%75.8%
Fellwar Stone275.8%75.8%
Marvin, Murderous Mimic275.8%75.8%
Pili-Pala275.8%75.8%
Talisman of Curiosity275.8%75.8%
Birds of Paradise178.8%78.8%
Citanul Stalwart178.8%78.8%
Crop Rotation178.8%78.8%
Delighted Halfling178.8%78.8%
Elvish Mystic178.8%78.8%
Fyndhorn Elves178.8%78.8%
Gene Pollinator178.8%78.8%
Green Sun's Zenith178.8%78.8%
Jaspera Sentinel178.8%78.8%
Legolas's Quick Reflexes178.8%78.8%
Llanowar Elves178.8%78.8%
Savage Summoning178.8%78.8%
Veil of Summer178.8%78.8%
Worldly Tutor178.8%78.8%
An Offer You Can't Refuse180.8%80.8%
Flusterstorm180.8%80.8%
Into the Flood Maw180.8%80.8%
Mockingbird180.8%80.8%
Mystic Remora180.8%80.8%
Mental Misstep192.8%92.8%
Noxious Revival192.8%92.8%
Sol Ring192.8%92.8%
Springleaf Drum192.8%92.8%