Land Drop
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Hypergeometric calculator

Chance to have the cards you need by a given turn: one or more groups of cards, each with a minimum or a range of copies, all together or at least one. Count the copies yourself or from a deck. How it works

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Counting from Stella Lee, Wild Card · Erik Hiller-Fittro · CEDH Win-A-Dual: 100 cards in the main deck.

Starting
More options: extra draws, mulligans, players
Conditions to meet
Condition 1
More conditions
Condition 2
Condition 3
Condition 4
Compare with

In place of cards of no condition: the deck keeps its size.

The 100 cards of the deck (95 different): conditions and effects
Which condition each card of the main deck counts for: the copies of a condition become the sum of its cards.
CardCopiesConditionIn the simulation
Ancient Tomb 1 —
Boseiju, Who Shelters All 1 —
Cascade Bluffs 1 —
City of Brass 1 —
Command Tower 1 —
Flooded Strand 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a plains / island card
Gemstone Caverns 1 —
Island 4 —
Mana Confluence 1 —
Minamo, School at Water's Edge 1 —
Mistrise Village 1 —
Misty Rainforest 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a forest / island card
Mountain 3 —
Polluted Delta 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a island / swamp card
Reflecting Pool 1 —
Riverglide Pathway // Lavaglide Pathway 1 —
Scalding Tarn 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a island / mountain card
Shivan Reef 1 —
Steam Vents 1 —
Stormcarved Coast 1 —
Sulfur Falls 1 —
Training Center 1 —
Volcanic Island 1 —
An Offer You Can't Refuse 1 —
Arcane Signet 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Birgi, God of Storytelling // Harnfel, Horn of Bounty 1 —
Borne Upon a Wind 1 draw 1
Brain Freeze 1 —
Brainstorm 1 draw 3
Cerulean Wisps 1 draw 1
Chrome Mox 1 —
Consider 1 scry 1; draw 1
Counterspell 1 —
Curate 1 scry 2; draw 1
Cyclonic Rift 1 —
Deflecting Swat 1 —
Deliberate 1 scry 2; draw 1
Dragon's Rage Channeler 1 —
Dramatic Reversal 1 —
Dualcaster Mage 1 —
Electroduplicate 1 —
Faerie Mastermind 1 —
Fellwar Stone 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Fierce Guardianship 1 —
Flare of Denial 1 —
Flashback 1 —
Flusterstorm 1 —
Force of Will 1 —
Frantic Search 1 draw 2
Gamble 1 —
Gitaxian Probe 1 draw 1
Grinning Ignus 1 1 mana: adds 3 mana
Hexing Squelcher 1 —
Izzet Signet 1 1 mana, tap: adds 2 mana
Jeska's Will 1 —
Laboratory Maniac 1 —
Lion's Eye Diamond 1 —
Lotus Petal 1 tap, sacrifice: adds 1 mana
Mana Leak 1 —
Mana Vault 1 tap: adds 3 mana
Minor Misstep 1 —
Miscast 1 —
Mox Amber 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Mox Opal 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Mystic Remora 1 —
Mystical Dispute 1 —
Mystical Tutor 1 search for a instant / sorcery card
Pact of Negation 1 —
Personal Tutor 1 search for a sorcery card
Ponder 1 scry 3; draw 1
Preordain 1 scry 2; draw 1
Pyretic Ritual 1 adds 3 mana
Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer 1 —
Refocus 1 draw 1
Rhystic Study 1 —
Rite of Flame 1 adds 2 mana
Seething Song 1 adds 5 mana
Shore Up 1 —
Simian Spirit Guide 1 —
Slip Out the Back 1 —
Snap 1 —
Sol Ring 1 tap: adds 2 mana
Spellseeker 1 when it enters: search for a instant / sorcery card
Stella Lee, Wild Card 1 —
Storm-Kiln Artist 1 —
Talisman of Creativity 1 tap: adds 1 mana; tap: adds 1 mana
The One Ring 1 tap: draw 1
Tolarian Winds 1 —
Twisted Fealty 1 —
Underworld Breach 1 —
Unsummon 1 —
Valley Floodcaller 1 —
Wan Shi Tong, Librarian 1 —
Wheel of Fortune 1 —
Windfall 1 —

Result

Write how many copies of the cards you want are in the deck.

Combos in hand

Chance to have every piece of a combo by turn 3: the combos from Commander Spellbook with every card in the main deck.

Mana sources

Lands and other sources of one color you need in 100 cards to cast a spell on curve: C is one symbol of that color in the cost, CC two, CCC three.

Sources for a 90% chance by that turn, on the play
CostTurn 1Turn 2Turn 3Turn 4Turn 5Turn 6
C252220181716
CC—3633302826
CCC——44413835

A land every turn

Chance to play a land on each turn up to that one: at least one land by turn 1, two by turn 2, and so on.

28 lands in the 100 cards of the deck.

Stella Lee, Wild Card decks play 26.2 lands on average, all Commander decks 27.3 (last 90 days).

A land drop on every turn up to that one
Up to turnOn the playOn the drawToo fewToo many
193.6%93.6%6.4%3.7%
277.9%77.9%22.1%1.4%
357.0%57.0%43.0%0.5%
436.9%36.9%63.1%0.1%
521.3%21.3%55.4%0.0%
611.1%11.1%47.8%0.0%
75.3%5.3%40.7%0.0%
82.3%2.3%34.2%0.0%
90.9%0.9%28.4%0.0%
100.3%0.3%23.2%0.0%

Casting on curve

For each spell of the deck: chance to have, on the turn equal to its mana value, that many lands and enough lands of its colors. Hybrid and Phyrexian symbols don’t count; other mana sources (creatures, artifacts) neither.

From the riskiest spell
CardCostTurnOn the playOn the draw
Force of Will521.3%21.3%
Storm-Kiln Artist436.5%36.5%
The One Ring436.9%36.9%
Dualcaster Mage344.3%44.3%
Flare of Denial354.7%54.7%
Stella Lee, Wild Card355.2%55.2%
Birgi, God of Storytelling // Harnfel, Horn of Bounty355.3%55.3%
Deflecting Swat355.3%55.3%
Electroduplicate355.3%55.3%
Grinning Ignus355.3%55.3%
Jeska's Will355.3%55.3%
Seething Song355.3%55.3%
Simian Spirit Guide355.3%55.3%
Twisted Fealty355.3%55.3%
Wheel of Fortune355.3%55.3%
Fierce Guardianship356.9%56.9%
Frantic Search356.9%56.9%
Laboratory Maniac356.9%56.9%
Mystical Dispute356.9%56.9%
Rhystic Study356.9%56.9%
Spellseeker356.9%56.9%
Valley Floodcaller356.9%56.9%
Windfall356.9%56.9%
Counterspell266.1%66.1%
Wan Shi Tong, Librarian266.1%66.1%
Hexing Squelcher272.0%72.0%
Pyretic Ritual272.0%72.0%
Underworld Breach272.0%72.0%
Borne Upon a Wind277.0%77.0%
Brain Freeze277.0%77.0%
Curate277.0%77.0%
Cyclonic Rift277.0%77.0%
Deliberate277.0%77.0%
Dramatic Reversal277.0%77.0%
Faerie Mastermind277.0%77.0%
Mana Leak277.0%77.0%
Refocus277.0%77.0%
Snap277.0%77.0%
Tolarian Winds277.0%77.0%
Arcane Signet277.9%77.9%
Fellwar Stone277.9%77.9%
Izzet Signet277.9%77.9%
Talisman of Creativity277.9%77.9%
Dragon's Rage Channeler178.8%78.8%
Flashback178.8%78.8%
Gamble178.8%78.8%
Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer178.8%78.8%
Rite of Flame178.8%78.8%
An Offer You Can't Refuse188.7%88.7%
Brainstorm188.7%88.7%
Cerulean Wisps188.7%88.7%
Consider188.7%88.7%
Flusterstorm188.7%88.7%
Minor Misstep188.7%88.7%
Miscast188.7%88.7%
Mystic Remora188.7%88.7%
Mystical Tutor188.7%88.7%
Personal Tutor188.7%88.7%
Ponder188.7%88.7%
Preordain188.7%88.7%
Shore Up188.7%88.7%
Slip Out the Back188.7%88.7%
Unsummon188.7%88.7%
Gitaxian Probe193.6%93.6%
Mana Vault193.6%93.6%
Sol Ring193.6%93.6%