Hypergeometric calculator
Chance to have the cards you need by a given turn: one or more groups of cards, each with a minimum or a range of copies, all together or at least one. Count the copies yourself or from a deck. How it works
Sample hand
Simulation
Goals of Prowess: Lava Dart, Monastery Swiftspear, Violent Urge, all by turn 3
More goals
Mulligan and opponent
Goals on different turns, all together, like two lands by turn 2 and a removal spell by turn 3: 20,000 games played turn by turn. 7 cards of the deck have effects the simulation uses (see the table of cards).
How the games are played
With a deck, the cards that change what you see work as their Oracle text says, read from Scryfall: scry and surveil, draws, looking at the top cards and taking one, searching the library, cycling, mana from artifacts and creatures (creatures from the next turn). Each turn: draw, play the land that helps a goal most (lands make their colors, Urza’s lands 7 mana together, lands that enter tapped from the next turn), then spend the mana: cast a card a goal asks to cast, search for a missing card, look at the top cards, the cheapest scry and draw cards, abilities that draw, cycling. Colors are checked. Scry keeps on top the cards of the goals still open, the nearest turn first, then lands if you need more. Other spells don’t use mana, so the result is a little optimistic. The opponent acts at the start of the chosen turn of yours: it destroys the land you need most, or makes you discard the nonland card you need most.
Saved variants
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Counting from Prowess · Dustin_Comite · Modern Challenge 64: 60 cards in the main deck.