Land Drop
Log in Sign up

Hypergeometric calculator

Chance to have the cards you need by a given turn: one or more groups of cards, each with a minimum or a range of copies, all together or at least one. Count the copies yourself or from a deck. How it works

Saved variants

Reset

Saved in this browser, up to 10: sign in and they move to your account.

Paste a decklist

Counting from Rograkh, Son of Rohgahh + Silas Renn, Seeker Adept · Antonio Acuna · CEDH Win-A-Dual October: 100 cards in the main deck.

Starting
More options: extra draws, mulligans, players
Conditions to meet
Condition 1
More conditions
Condition 2
Condition 3
Condition 4
Compare with

In place of cards of no condition: the deck keeps its size.

The 100 cards of the deck (100 different): conditions and effects
Which condition each card of the main deck counts for: the copies of a condition become the sum of its cards.
CardCopiesConditionIn the simulation
Ancient Tomb 1 —
Arid Mesa 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a mountain / plains card
Badlands 1 —
Blood Crypt 1 —
Bloodstained Mire 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a swamp / mountain card
City of Brass 1 —
City of Traitors 1 —
Command Tower 1 —
Flooded Strand 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a plains / island card
Gemstone Caverns 1 —
Mana Confluence 1 —
Marsh Flats 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a plains / swamp card
Misty Rainforest 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a forest / island card
Otawara, Soaring City 1 —
Phyrexian Tower 1 —
Polluted Delta 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a island / swamp card
Scalding Tarn 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a island / mountain card
Starting Town 1 —
Underground Sea 1 —
Verdant Catacombs 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a swamp / forest card
Volcanic Island 1 —
Watery Grave 1 —
Wooded Foothills 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a mountain / forest card
Ad Nauseam 1 —
An Offer You Can't Refuse 1 —
Arcane Signet 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Beseech the Mirror 1 —
Birgi, God of Storytelling // Harnfel, Horn of Bounty 1 —
Borne Upon a Wind 1 draw 1
Brain Freeze 1 —
Cabal Ritual 1 adds 3 mana
Chain of Vapor 1 —
Chromatic Star 1 1 mana, tap, sacrifice: adds 1 mana
Chrome Mox 1 —
Commandeer 1 —
Culling the Weak 1 adds 4 mana
Dark Ritual 1 adds 3 mana
Daze 1 —
Defense Grid 1 —
Deflecting Swat 1 —
Demonic Consultation 1 —
Demonic Counsel 1 search for a demon card
Demonic Tutor 1 —
Diabolic Intent 1 —
Fierce Guardianship 1 —
Final Fortune 1 —
Flare of Duplication 1 —
Flusterstorm 1 —
Force of Will 1 —
Gamble 1 —
Gitaxian Probe 1 draw 1
Grim Monolith 1 tap: adds 3 mana
Grinding Station 1 —
Hexing Squelcher 1 —
Imperial Seal 1 —
Infernal Plunge 1 adds 3 mana
Jeska's Will 1 —
Last Chance 1 —
Lion's Eye Diamond 1 —
Lotus Petal 1 tap, sacrifice: adds 1 mana
Mana Vault 1 tap: adds 3 mana
Mental Misstep 1 —
Mindbreak Trap 1 —
Misdirection 1 —
Mnemonic Betrayal 1 —
Mox Amber 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Mox Diamond 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Mox Opal 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Mystic Remora 1 —
Mystical Tutor 1 search for a instant / sorcery card
Necrodominance 1 —
Necropotence 1 —
Pact of Negation 1 —
Paradise Mantle 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Praetor's Grasp 1 —
Pyroblast 1 —
Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer 1 —
Rain of Filth 1 sacrifice: adds 1 mana
Red Elemental Blast 1 —
Rhystic Study 1 —
Rite of Flame 1 adds 2 mana
Rograkh, Son of Rohgahh 1 —
Silas Renn, Seeker Adept 1 —
Simian Spirit Guide 1 —
Snapback 1 —
Sol Ring 1 tap: adds 2 mana
Springleaf Drum 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Tainted Pact 1 —
Talisman of Dominance 1 tap: adds 1 mana; tap: adds 1 mana
Talisman of Indulgence 1 tap: adds 1 mana; tap: adds 1 mana
Thassa's Oracle 1 —
Underworld Breach 1 —
Valley Floodcaller 1 —
Vampiric Tutor 1 —
Vexing Bauble 1 —
Warrior's Oath 1 —
Wheel of Fortune 1 —
Windfall 1 —
Wishclaw Talisman 1 —
Yawgmoth's Will 1 —

Result

Write how many copies of the cards you want are in the deck.

Mana sources

Lands and other sources of one color you need in 100 cards to cast a spell on curve: C is one symbol of that color in the cost, CC two, CCC three.

Sources for a 90% chance by that turn, on the play
CostTurn 1Turn 2Turn 3Turn 4Turn 5Turn 6
C252220181716
CC—3633302826
CCC——44413835

A land every turn

Chance to play a land on each turn up to that one: at least one land by turn 1, two by turn 2, and so on.

23 lands in the 100 cards of the deck.

Rograkh, Son of Rohgahh + Silas Renn, Seeker Adept decks play 23.3 lands on average, all Commander decks 27.3 (last 90 days).

A land drop on every turn up to that one
Up to turnOn the playOn the drawToo fewToo many
188.7%88.7%11.3%1.5%
266.1%66.1%33.9%0.4%
341.5%41.5%58.5%0.1%
422.3%22.3%77.7%0.0%
510.5%10.5%71.7%0.0%
64.4%4.4%65.6%0.0%
71.6%1.6%59.3%0.0%
80.6%0.6%53.1%0.0%
90.2%0.2%47.0%0.0%
100.0%0.0%41.3%0.0%

Casting on curve

For each spell of the deck: chance to have, on the turn equal to its mana value, that many lands and enough lands of its colors. Hybrid and Phyrexian symbols don’t count; other mana sources (creatures, artifacts) neither.

From the riskiest spell
CardCostTurnOn the playOn the draw
Commandeer71.6%1.6%
Force of Will59.7%9.7%
Misdirection59.7%9.7%
Ad Nauseam510.0%10.0%
Beseech the Mirror412.8%12.8%
Necrodominance314.5%14.5%
Necropotence314.5%14.5%
Mindbreak Trap418.8%18.8%
Flare of Duplication326.3%26.3%
Final Fortune229.4%29.4%
Last Chance229.4%29.4%
Warrior's Oath229.4%29.4%
Praetor's Grasp331.3%31.3%
Thassa's Oracle233.1%33.1%
Mnemonic Betrayal338.2%38.2%
Silas Renn, Seeker Adept338.2%38.2%
Birgi, God of Storytelling // Harnfel, Horn of Bounty338.7%38.7%
Deflecting Swat338.7%38.7%
Jeska's Will338.7%38.7%
Simian Spirit Guide338.7%38.7%
Wheel of Fortune338.7%38.7%
Fierce Guardianship339.5%39.5%
Rhystic Study339.5%39.5%
Valley Floodcaller339.5%39.5%
Windfall339.5%39.5%
Yawgmoth's Will340.1%40.1%
Hexing Squelcher256.7%56.7%
Underworld Breach256.7%56.7%
Borne Upon a Wind258.7%58.7%
Brain Freeze258.7%58.7%
Daze258.7%58.7%
Snapback258.7%58.7%
Cabal Ritual260.3%60.3%
Demonic Counsel260.3%60.3%
Demonic Tutor260.3%60.3%
Diabolic Intent260.3%60.3%
Tainted Pact260.3%60.3%
Wishclaw Talisman260.3%60.3%
Gamble165.5%65.5%
Infernal Plunge165.5%65.5%
Pyroblast165.5%65.5%
Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer165.5%65.5%
Red Elemental Blast165.5%65.5%
Rite of Flame165.5%65.5%
Arcane Signet266.1%66.1%
Defense Grid266.1%66.1%
Grim Monolith266.1%66.1%
Grinding Station266.1%66.1%
Talisman of Dominance266.1%66.1%
Talisman of Indulgence266.1%66.1%
An Offer You Can't Refuse168.6%68.6%
Chain of Vapor168.6%68.6%
Flusterstorm168.6%68.6%
Mystic Remora168.6%68.6%
Mystical Tutor168.6%68.6%
Culling the Weak171.5%71.5%
Dark Ritual171.5%71.5%
Demonic Consultation171.5%71.5%
Imperial Seal171.5%71.5%
Rain of Filth171.5%71.5%
Vampiric Tutor171.5%71.5%
Chromatic Star188.7%88.7%
Gitaxian Probe188.7%88.7%
Mana Vault188.7%88.7%
Mental Misstep188.7%88.7%
Sol Ring188.7%88.7%
Springleaf Drum188.7%88.7%
Vexing Bauble188.7%88.7%