Land Drop
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Hypergeometric calculator

Chance to have the cards you need by a given turn: one or more groups of cards, each with a minimum or a range of copies, all together or at least one. Count the copies yourself or from a deck. How it works

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Counting from Thrasios, Triton Hero + Vial Smasher the Fierce · Roel Pomper · Lucky Top Deck Series 18: 100 cards in the main deck.

Starting
More options: extra draws, mulligans, players
Conditions to meet
Condition 1
More conditions
Condition 2
Condition 3
Condition 4
Compare with

In place of cards of no condition: the deck keeps its size.

The 100 cards of the deck (100 different): conditions and effects
Which condition each card of the main deck counts for: the copies of a condition become the sum of its cards.
CardCopiesConditionIn the simulation
Ancient Tomb 1 —
Badlands 1 —
Bayou 1 —
Bloodstained Mire 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a swamp / mountain card
Boseiju, Who Endures 1 —
City of Brass 1 —
City of Traitors 1 —
Command Tower 1 —
Emergence Zone 1 —
Exotic Orchard 1 —
Forbidden Orchard 1 —
Gemstone Caverns 1 —
Mana Confluence 1 —
Misty Rainforest 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a forest / island card
Otawara, Soaring City 1 —
Polluted Delta 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a island / swamp card
Scalding Tarn 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a island / mountain card
Starting Town 1 —
Taiga 1 —
Tropical Island 1 —
Underground Sea 1 —
Verdant Catacombs 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a swamp / forest card
Volcanic Island 1 —
Wooded Foothills 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a mountain / forest card
Ad Nauseam 1 —
An Offer You Can't Refuse 1 —
Arcane Signet 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Autumn's Veil 1 —
Basalt Monolith 1 tap: adds 3 mana
Beseech the Mirror 1 —
Birds of Paradise 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Borne Upon a Wind 1 draw 1
Brain Freeze 1 —
Cabal Ritual 1 adds 3 mana
Carpet of Flowers 1 —
Chain of Vapor 1 —
Chrome Mox 1 —
Crop Rotation 1 search for a land card
Culling Ritual 1 —
Culling the Weak 1 adds 4 mana
Dark Ritual 1 adds 3 mana
Daze 1 —
Deathrite Shaman 1 —
Demonic Consultation 1 —
Demonic Tutor 1 —
Diabolic Intent 1 —
Elves of Deep Shadow 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Elvish Spirit Guide 1 —
Fellwar Stone 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Fierce Guardianship 1 —
Final Fortune 1 —
Flusterstorm 1 —
Force of Will 1 —
Gamble 1 —
Grim Monolith 1 tap: adds 3 mana
Hexing Squelcher 1 —
Ignoble Hierarch 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Imperial Seal 1 —
Kinnan, Bonder Prodigy 1 7 mana: look at 5, take one
Lion's Eye Diamond 1 —
Lotus Petal 1 tap, sacrifice: adds 1 mana
Mana Vault 1 tap: adds 3 mana
Manamorphose 1 adds 2 mana; draw 1
Mental Misstep 1 —
Mindbreak Trap 1 —
Mox Amber 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Mox Diamond 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Mox Opal 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Mystic Remora 1 —
Mystical Tutor 1 search for a instant / sorcery card
Necrodominance 1 —
Necropotence 1 —
Noxious Revival 1 —
Orcish Bowmasters 1 —
Pact of Negation 1 —
Praetor's Grasp 1 —
Pyroblast 1 —
Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer 1 —
Rain of Filth 1 sacrifice: adds 1 mana
Red Elemental Blast 1 —
Rhystic Study 1 —
Rite of Flame 1 adds 2 mana
Simian Spirit Guide 1 —
Sol Ring 1 tap: adds 2 mana
Summoner's Pact 1 search for a green creature card
Swan Song 1 —
Tainted Pact 1 —
Thassa's Oracle 1 —
Thrasios, Triton Hero 1 4 mana: scry 1; 4 mana: draw 1
Timetwister 1 —
Tinder Wall 1 sacrifice: adds 2 mana
Underworld Breach 1 —
Valley Floodcaller 1 —
Vampiric Tutor 1 —
Veil of Summer 1 draw 1
Vexing Bauble 1 —
Vial Smasher the Fierce 1 —
Wheel of Fortune 1 —
Wild Cantor 1 sacrifice: adds 1 mana
Wishclaw Talisman 1 —

Result

Write how many copies of the cards you want are in the deck.

Mana sources

Lands and other sources of one color you need in 100 cards to cast a spell on curve: C is one symbol of that color in the cost, CC two, CCC three.

Sources for a 90% chance by that turn, on the play
CostTurn 1Turn 2Turn 3Turn 4Turn 5Turn 6
C252220181716
CC—3633302826
CCC——44413835

A land every turn

Chance to play a land on each turn up to that one: at least one land by turn 1, two by turn 2, and so on.

24 lands in the 100 cards of the deck.

Thrasios, Triton Hero + Vial Smasher the Fierce decks play 26.0 lands on average, all Commander decks 27.3 (last 90 days).

A land drop on every turn up to that one
Up to turnOn the playOn the drawToo fewToo many
189.9%89.9%10.1%1.8%
268.7%68.7%31.3%0.6%
344.7%44.7%55.3%0.2%
425.1%25.1%74.9%0.0%
512.4%12.4%68.6%0.0%
65.4%5.4%62.0%0.0%
72.1%2.1%55.5%0.0%
80.8%0.8%49.1%0.0%
90.2%0.2%42.9%0.0%
100.1%0.1%37.2%0.0%

Casting on curve

For each spell of the deck: chance to have, on the turn equal to its mana value, that many lands and enough lands of its colors. Hybrid and Phyrexian symbols don’t count; other mana sources (creatures, artifacts) neither.

From the riskiest spell
CardCostTurnOn the playOn the draw
Ad Nauseam511.2%11.2%
Beseech the Mirror411.4%11.4%
Force of Will511.6%11.6%
Necrodominance312.0%12.0%
Necropotence312.0%12.0%
Mindbreak Trap421.6%21.6%
Culling Ritual424.1%24.1%
Praetor's Grasp329.9%29.9%
Final Fortune233.1%33.1%
Thassa's Oracle236.8%36.8%
Vial Smasher the Fierce340.1%40.1%
Simian Spirit Guide342.1%42.1%
Wheel of Fortune342.1%42.1%
Elvish Spirit Guide342.9%42.9%
Fierce Guardianship342.9%42.9%
Rhystic Study342.9%42.9%
Timetwister342.9%42.9%
Valley Floodcaller342.9%42.9%
Basalt Monolith344.7%44.7%
Kinnan, Bonder Prodigy256.4%56.4%
Thrasios, Triton Hero256.4%56.4%
Cabal Ritual260.1%60.1%
Demonic Tutor260.1%60.1%
Diabolic Intent260.1%60.1%
Hexing Squelcher260.1%60.1%
Orcish Bowmasters260.1%60.1%
Tainted Pact260.1%60.1%
Underworld Breach260.1%60.1%
Wishclaw Talisman260.1%60.1%
Borne Upon a Wind261.9%61.9%
Brain Freeze261.9%61.9%
Daze261.9%61.9%
Culling the Weak168.6%68.6%
Dark Ritual168.6%68.6%
Demonic Consultation168.6%68.6%
Gamble168.6%68.6%
Imperial Seal168.6%68.6%
Pyroblast168.6%68.6%
Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer168.6%68.6%
Rain of Filth168.6%68.6%
Red Elemental Blast168.6%68.6%
Rite of Flame168.6%68.6%
Vampiric Tutor168.6%68.6%
Arcane Signet268.7%68.7%
Fellwar Stone268.7%68.7%
Grim Monolith268.7%68.7%
Manamorphose268.7%68.7%
An Offer You Can't Refuse171.5%71.5%
Autumn's Veil171.5%71.5%
Birds of Paradise171.5%71.5%
Carpet of Flowers171.5%71.5%
Chain of Vapor171.5%71.5%
Crop Rotation171.5%71.5%
Elves of Deep Shadow171.5%71.5%
Flusterstorm171.5%71.5%
Ignoble Hierarch171.5%71.5%
Mystic Remora171.5%71.5%
Mystical Tutor171.5%71.5%
Swan Song171.5%71.5%
Tinder Wall171.5%71.5%
Veil of Summer171.5%71.5%
Deathrite Shaman189.9%89.9%
Mana Vault189.9%89.9%
Mental Misstep189.9%89.9%
Noxious Revival189.9%89.9%
Sol Ring189.9%89.9%
Vexing Bauble189.9%89.9%
Wild Cantor189.9%89.9%