Land Drop
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Hypergeometric calculator

Chance to have the cards you need by a given turn: one or more groups of cards, each with a minimum or a range of copies, all together or at least one. Count the copies yourself or from a deck. How it works

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Counting from Crystal, Inhuman Princess · Alberto Vergara III · Beyond CEDH August: 100 cards in the main deck.

Starting
More options: extra draws, mulligans, players
Conditions to meet
Condition 1
More conditions
Condition 2
Condition 3
Condition 4
Compare with

In place of cards of no condition: the deck keeps its size.

The 100 cards of the deck (100 different): conditions and effects
Which condition each card of the main deck counts for: the copies of a condition become the sum of its cards.
CardCopiesConditionIn the simulation
Ancient Tomb 1 —
Arid Mesa 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a mountain / plains card
Boseiju, Who Endures 1 —
City of Brass 1 —
Command Tower 1 —
Exotic Orchard 1 —
Flooded Strand 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a plains / island card
Gemstone Caverns 1 —
Mana Confluence 1 —
Misty Rainforest 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a forest / island card
Otawara, Soaring City 1 —
Plateau 1 —
Polluted Delta 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a island / swamp card
Savannah 1 —
Scalding Tarn 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a island / mountain card
Sink into Stupor // Soporific Springs 1 —
Starting Town 1 —
Taiga 1 —
Tarnished Citadel 1 —
Temple Garden 1 —
Tropical Island 1 —
Tundra 1 —
Volcanic Island 1 —
Windswept Heath 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a forest / plains card
Wooded Foothills 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a mountain / forest card
An Offer You Can't Refuse 1 —
Arcane Signet 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Archivist of Oghma 1 —
Birds of Paradise 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Borne Upon a Wind 1 draw 1
Brain Freeze 1 —
Chrome Mox 1 —
Crystal, Inhuman Princess 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Curiosity 1 —
Deflecting Swat 1 —
Delighted Halfling 1 tap: adds 1 mana; tap: adds 1 mana
Elvish Spirit Guide 1 —
Emerald Charm 1 —
Enlightened Tutor 1 search for a artifact / enchantment card
Esper Sentinel 1 —
Faerie Mastermind 1 —
Fellwar Stone 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Fierce Guardianship 1 —
Final Fortune 1 —
Flusterstorm 1 —
Force of Negation 1 —
Force of Will 1 —
Gamble 1 —
Gitaxian Probe 1 draw 1
Gleaming Splendor 1 —
Gut Shot 1 —
Imposter Mech 1 —
Into the Flood Maw 1 —
Intuition 1 —
Jeska's Will 1 —
Jeskai Ascendancy 1 —
Keen Sense 1 —
Legolas's Quick Reflexes 1 —
Lion's Eye Diamond 1 —
Lotus Petal 1 tap, sacrifice: adds 1 mana
Mana Vault 1 tap: adds 3 mana
Mental Misstep 1 —
Mindbreak Trap 1 —
Misdirection 1 —
Mox Diamond 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Mystic Remora 1 —
Mystical Tutor 1 search for a instant / sorcery card
Noble Hierarch 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Noxious Revival 1 —
Ophidian Eye 1 —
Orim's Chant 1 —
Pact of Negation 1 —
Pyroblast 1 —
Pyrokinesis 1 —
Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer 1 —
Redirect Lightning 1 —
Retraction Helix 1 —
Rhystic Study 1 —
Rite of Flame 1 adds 2 mana
Sevinne's Reclamation 1 —
Sewer-veillance Cam 1 —
Silence 1 —
Simian Spirit Guide 1 —
Snake Umbra 1 —
Snapback 1 —
Sol Ring 1 tap: adds 2 mana
Storm-Kiln Artist 1 —
Strike It Rich 1 —
Swan Song 1 —
Sylvan Library 1 —
Tandem Lookout 1 —
The Cabbage Merchant 1 —
Three Visits 1 search for a forest card
Tidal Bore 1 —
Tinder Wall 1 sacrifice: adds 2 mana
Underworld Breach 1 —
Veil of Summer 1 draw 1
Vivi Ornitier 1 —
Voice of Victory 1 —
Wild Growth 1 —

Result

Write how many copies of the cards you want are in the deck.

Combos in hand

Chance to have every piece of a combo by turn 3: the combos from Commander Spellbook with every card in the main deck.

Mana sources

Lands and other sources of one color you need in 100 cards to cast a spell on curve: C is one symbol of that color in the cost, CC two, CCC three.

Sources for a 90% chance by that turn, on the play
CostTurn 1Turn 2Turn 3Turn 4Turn 5Turn 6
C252220181716
CC—3633302826
CCC——44413835

A land every turn

Chance to play a land on each turn up to that one: at least one land by turn 1, two by turn 2, and so on.

25 lands in the 100 cards of the deck.

Crystal, Inhuman Princess decks play 25.9 lands on average, all Commander decks 27.3 (last 90 days).

A land drop on every turn up to that one
Up to turnOn the playOn the drawToo fewToo many
190.9%90.9%9.1%2.2%
271.2%71.2%28.8%0.7%
347.8%47.8%52.2%0.2%
427.9%27.9%72.1%0.1%
514.4%14.4%65.3%0.0%
66.6%6.6%58.4%0.0%
72.7%2.7%51.7%0.0%
81.0%1.0%45.1%0.0%
90.4%0.4%39.0%0.0%
100.1%0.1%33.3%0.0%

Casting on curve

For each spell of the deck: chance to have, on the turn equal to its mana value, that many lands and enough lands of its colors. Hybrid and Phyrexian symbols don’t count; other mana sources (creatures, artifacts) neither.

From the riskiest spell
CardCostTurnOn the playOn the draw
Pyrokinesis66.3%6.3%
Force of Will513.9%13.9%
Misdirection513.9%13.9%
Mindbreak Trap425.5%25.5%
Storm-Kiln Artist427.1%27.1%
Final Fortune233.1%33.1%
Force of Negation338.3%38.3%
Jeskai Ascendancy341.8%41.8%
Crystal, Inhuman Princess343.3%43.3%
Vivi Ornitier343.6%43.6%
Deflecting Swat344.6%44.6%
Jeska's Will344.6%44.6%
Simian Spirit Guide344.6%44.6%
Sevinne's Reclamation345.5%45.5%
Elvish Spirit Guide346.2%46.2%
Snake Umbra346.2%46.2%
The Cabbage Merchant346.2%46.2%
Fierce Guardianship346.7%46.7%
Intuition346.7%46.7%
Ophidian Eye346.7%46.7%
Rhystic Study346.7%46.7%
Tandem Lookout346.7%46.7%
Underworld Breach261.5%61.5%
Archivist of Oghma263.4%63.4%
Gleaming Splendor263.4%63.4%
Voice of Victory263.4%63.4%
Sylvan Library265.1%65.1%
Three Visits265.1%65.1%
Borne Upon a Wind266.5%66.5%
Brain Freeze266.5%66.5%
Faerie Mastermind266.5%66.5%
Imposter Mech266.5%66.5%
Snapback266.5%66.5%
Tidal Bore266.5%66.5%
Gamble168.6%68.6%
Pyroblast168.6%68.6%
Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer168.6%68.6%
Redirect Lightning168.6%68.6%
Rite of Flame168.6%68.6%
Strike It Rich168.6%68.6%
Arcane Signet271.2%71.2%
Fellwar Stone271.2%71.2%
Enlightened Tutor171.5%71.5%
Esper Sentinel171.5%71.5%
Orim's Chant171.5%71.5%
Silence171.5%71.5%
Birds of Paradise174.1%74.1%
Delighted Halfling174.1%74.1%
Emerald Charm174.1%74.1%
Keen Sense174.1%74.1%
Legolas's Quick Reflexes174.1%74.1%
Noble Hierarch174.1%74.1%
Tinder Wall174.1%74.1%
Veil of Summer174.1%74.1%
Wild Growth174.1%74.1%
An Offer You Can't Refuse176.6%76.6%
Curiosity176.6%76.6%
Flusterstorm176.6%76.6%
Into the Flood Maw176.6%76.6%
Mystic Remora176.6%76.6%
Mystical Tutor176.6%76.6%
Retraction Helix176.6%76.6%
Sewer-veillance Cam176.6%76.6%
Swan Song176.6%76.6%
Gitaxian Probe190.9%90.9%
Gut Shot190.9%90.9%
Mana Vault190.9%90.9%
Mental Misstep190.9%90.9%
Noxious Revival190.9%90.9%
Sol Ring190.9%90.9%