Land Drop
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Hypergeometric calculator

Chance to have the cards you need by a given turn: one or more groups of cards, each with a minimum or a range of copies, all together or at least one. Count the copies yourself or from a deck. How it works

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Counting from Rograkh, Son of Rohgahh + Silas Renn, Seeker Adept · Seth Johnson · The Haunted Badlands: 100 cards in the main deck.

Starting
More options: extra draws, mulligans, players
Conditions to meet
Condition 1
More conditions
Condition 2
Condition 3
Condition 4
Compare with

In place of cards of no condition: the deck keeps its size.

The 100 cards of the deck (100 different): conditions and effects
Which condition each card of the main deck counts for: the copies of a condition become the sum of its cards.
CardCopiesConditionIn the simulation
Ancient Tomb 1 —
Arid Mesa 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a mountain / plains card
Badlands 1 —
Blood Crypt 1 —
Bloodstained Mire 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a swamp / mountain card
City of Brass 1 —
City of Traitors 1 —
Command Tower 1 —
Exotic Orchard 1 —
Flooded Strand 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a plains / island card
Gemstone Caverns 1 —
Mana Confluence 1 —
Marsh Flats 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a plains / swamp card
Misty Rainforest 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a forest / island card
Otawara, Soaring City 1 —
Phyrexian Tower 1 —
Polluted Delta 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a island / swamp card
Scalding Tarn 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a island / mountain card
Starting Town 1 —
Underground Sea 1 —
Verdant Catacombs 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a swamp / forest card
Volcanic Island 1 —
Watery Grave 1 —
Wooded Foothills 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a mountain / forest card
Ad Nauseam 1 —
An Offer You Can't Refuse 1 —
Arcane Signet 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Beseech the Mirror 1 —
Birgi, God of Storytelling // Harnfel, Horn of Bounty 1 —
Borne Upon a Wind 1 draw 1
Brain Freeze 1 —
Cabal Ritual 1 adds 3 mana
Chain of Vapor 1 —
Chromatic Star 1 1 mana, tap, sacrifice: adds 1 mana
Chrome Mox 1 —
Commandeer 1 —
Culling the Weak 1 adds 4 mana
Dark Ritual 1 adds 3 mana
Daze 1 —
Defense Grid 1 —
Deflecting Swat 1 —
Demonic Consultation 1 —
Demonic Counsel 1 search for a demon card
Demonic Tutor 1 —
Diabolic Intent 1 —
Dispel 1 —
Faerie Mastermind 1 —
Fellwar Stone 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Fierce Guardianship 1 —
Final Fortune 1 —
Flare of Duplication 1 —
Flusterstorm 1 —
Force of Negation 1 —
Force of Will 1 —
Gamble 1 —
Grim Monolith 1 tap: adds 3 mana
Grinding Station 1 —
Hexing Squelcher 1 —
Imperial Seal 1 —
Infernal Plunge 1 adds 3 mana
Into the Flood Maw 1 —
Jeska's Will 1 —
Last Chance 1 —
Lim-Dûl's Vault 1 —
Lion's Eye Diamond 1 —
Lotus Petal 1 tap, sacrifice: adds 1 mana
Mana Vault 1 tap: adds 3 mana
Mental Misstep 1 —
Mindbreak Trap 1 —
Misdirection 1 —
Mox Amber 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Mox Diamond 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Mox Opal 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Mystic Remora 1 —
Mystical Tutor 1 search for a instant / sorcery card
Necrodominance 1 —
Necropotence 1 —
Pact of Negation 1 —
Paradise Mantle 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Praetor's Grasp 1 —
Pyroblast 1 —
Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer 1 —
Rain of Filth 1 sacrifice: adds 1 mana
Red Elemental Blast 1 —
Rhystic Study 1 —
Rite of Flame 1 adds 2 mana
Rograkh, Son of Rohgahh 1 —
Silas Renn, Seeker Adept 1 —
Simian Spirit Guide 1 —
Snapback 1 —
Sol Ring 1 tap: adds 2 mana
Springleaf Drum 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Swan Song 1 —
Tainted Pact 1 —
Thassa's Oracle 1 —
Underworld Breach 1 —
Valley Floodcaller 1 —
Vampiric Tutor 1 —
Vexing Bauble 1 —
Wishclaw Talisman 1 —

Result

Write how many copies of the cards you want are in the deck.

Mana sources

Lands and other sources of one color you need in 100 cards to cast a spell on curve: C is one symbol of that color in the cost, CC two, CCC three.

Sources for a 90% chance by that turn, on the play
CostTurn 1Turn 2Turn 3Turn 4Turn 5Turn 6
C252220181716
CC—3633302826
CCC——44413835

A land every turn

Chance to play a land on each turn up to that one: at least one land by turn 1, two by turn 2, and so on.

24 lands in the 100 cards of the deck.

Rograkh, Son of Rohgahh + Silas Renn, Seeker Adept decks play 23.3 lands on average, all Commander decks 27.3 (last 90 days).

A land drop on every turn up to that one
Up to turnOn the playOn the drawToo fewToo many
189.9%89.9%10.1%1.8%
268.7%68.7%31.3%0.6%
344.7%44.7%55.3%0.2%
425.1%25.1%74.9%0.0%
512.4%12.4%68.6%0.0%
65.4%5.4%62.0%0.0%
72.1%2.1%55.5%0.0%
80.8%0.8%49.1%0.0%
90.2%0.2%42.9%0.0%
100.1%0.1%37.2%0.0%

Casting on curve

For each spell of the deck: chance to have, on the turn equal to its mana value, that many lands and enough lands of its colors. Hybrid and Phyrexian symbols don’t count; other mana sources (creatures, artifacts) neither.

From the riskiest spell
CardCostTurnOn the playOn the draw
Commandeer72.1%2.1%
Force of Will511.6%11.6%
Misdirection511.6%11.6%
Ad Nauseam511.9%11.9%
Beseech the Mirror415.2%15.2%
Necrodominance317.1%17.1%
Necropotence317.1%17.1%
Mindbreak Trap421.6%21.6%
Flare of Duplication329.9%29.9%
Force of Negation332.4%32.4%
Final Fortune233.1%33.1%
Last Chance233.1%33.1%
Praetor's Grasp334.8%34.8%
Thassa's Oracle236.8%36.8%
Silas Renn, Seeker Adept341.7%41.7%
Birgi, God of Storytelling // Harnfel, Horn of Bounty342.1%42.1%
Deflecting Swat342.1%42.1%
Jeska's Will342.1%42.1%
Simian Spirit Guide342.1%42.1%
Fierce Guardianship342.9%42.9%
Rhystic Study342.9%42.9%
Valley Floodcaller342.9%42.9%
Lim-Dûl's Vault257.5%57.5%
Hexing Squelcher260.1%60.1%
Underworld Breach260.1%60.1%
Borne Upon a Wind261.9%61.9%
Brain Freeze261.9%61.9%
Daze261.9%61.9%
Faerie Mastermind261.9%61.9%
Snapback261.9%61.9%
Cabal Ritual263.5%63.5%
Demonic Counsel263.5%63.5%
Demonic Tutor263.5%63.5%
Diabolic Intent263.5%63.5%
Tainted Pact263.5%63.5%
Wishclaw Talisman263.5%63.5%
Gamble168.6%68.6%
Infernal Plunge168.6%68.6%
Pyroblast168.6%68.6%
Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer168.6%68.6%
Red Elemental Blast168.6%68.6%
Rite of Flame168.6%68.6%
Arcane Signet268.7%68.7%
Defense Grid268.7%68.7%
Fellwar Stone268.7%68.7%
Grim Monolith268.7%68.7%
Grinding Station268.7%68.7%
An Offer You Can't Refuse171.5%71.5%
Chain of Vapor171.5%71.5%
Dispel171.5%71.5%
Flusterstorm171.5%71.5%
Into the Flood Maw171.5%71.5%
Mystic Remora171.5%71.5%
Mystical Tutor171.5%71.5%
Swan Song171.5%71.5%
Culling the Weak174.1%74.1%
Dark Ritual174.1%74.1%
Demonic Consultation174.1%74.1%
Imperial Seal174.1%74.1%
Rain of Filth174.1%74.1%
Vampiric Tutor174.1%74.1%
Chromatic Star189.9%89.9%
Mana Vault189.9%89.9%
Mental Misstep189.9%89.9%
Sol Ring189.9%89.9%
Springleaf Drum189.9%89.9%
Vexing Bauble189.9%89.9%