Land Drop
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Hypergeometric calculator

Chance to have the cards you need by a given turn: one or more groups of cards, each with a minimum or a range of copies, all together or at least one. Count the copies yourself or from a deck. How it works

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Counting from Kethis, the Hidden Hand · Brennen · October cEDH at the Gamer's Haven: 100 cards in the main deck.

Starting
More options: extra draws, mulligans, players
Conditions to meet
Condition 1
More conditions
Condition 2
Condition 3
Condition 4
Compare with

In place of cards of no condition: the deck keeps its size.

The 100 cards of the deck (100 different): conditions and effects
Which condition each card of the main deck counts for: the copies of a condition become the sum of its cards.
CardCopiesConditionIn the simulation
Arid Mesa 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a mountain / plains card
Bayou 1 —
Bloodstained Mire 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a swamp / mountain card
Boseiju, Who Endures 1 —
Emergence Zone 1 —
Flooded Strand 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a plains / island card
Gaea's Cradle 1 —
Gemstone Caverns 1 —
Godless Shrine 1 —
Inventors' Fair 1 4 mana, tap, sacrifice: search for a artifact card
Lush Portico 1 enters tapped; when it enters: scry 1
Marsh Flats 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a plains / swamp card
Misty Rainforest 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a forest / island card
Overgrown Tomb 1 —
Phyrexian Tower 1 —
Polluted Delta 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a island / swamp card
Savannah 1 —
Scrubland 1 —
Shadowy Backstreet 1 enters tapped; when it enters: scry 1
Shifting Woodland 1 —
Temple Garden 1 —
Underground Mortuary 1 enters tapped; when it enters: scry 1
Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth 1 —
Urza's Saga 1 —
Verdant Catacombs 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a swamp / forest card
Windswept Heath 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a forest / plains card
Wooded Foothills 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a mountain / forest card
Yavimaya, Cradle of Growth 1 —
Abrupt Decay 1 —
Agatha's Soul Cauldron 1 —
Animate Dead 1 —
Arcane Signet 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Avacyn's Pilgrim 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Birds of Paradise 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Bridge from Below 1 —
Cabal Therapy 1 —
Chord of Calling 1 search for a creature card
Chrome Mox 1 —
Crop Rotation 1 search for a land card
Culling the Weak 1 adds 4 mana
Dark Ritual 1 adds 3 mana
Deathrite Shaman 1 —
Delighted Halfling 1 tap: adds 1 mana; tap: adds 1 mana
Demonic Tutor 1 —
Devoted Druid 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Diabolic Intent 1 —
Doctor Doom, Unrivaled 1 tap: draw 1
Dread Return 1 —
Duskwatch Recruiter // Krallenhorde Howler 1 3 mana: look at 3, take one
Eladamri's Call 1 search for a creature card
Eldritch Evolution 1 search for a creature card
Endurance 1 —
Enlightened Tutor 1 search for a artifact / enchantment card
Entomb 1 —
Erode 1 —
Esper Sentinel 1 —
Force of Vigor 1 —
Formidable Speaker 1 when it enters: search for a creature card
Goryo's Vengeance 1 —
Green Sun's Zenith 1 search for a green creature card
Grindstone 1 —
Hazel's Brewmaster 1 —
Hermit Druid 1 —
Hope of Ghirapur 1 —
Imperial Seal 1 —
Jennifer Walters // The Sensational She-Hulk 1 —
Kethis, the Hidden Hand 1 —
Liliana the Repentant 1 —
Lotho, Corrupt Shirriff 1 —
Lotus Petal 1 tap, sacrifice: adds 1 mana
Mana Vault 1 tap: adds 3 mana
Marvin, Murderous Mimic 1 —
Mox Amber 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Mox Diamond 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Mox Opal 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Nature's Rhythm 1 search for a creature card
Necromancy 1 —
Opposition Agent 1 —
Orcish Bowmasters 1 —
Painter's Servant 1 —
Poxwalkers 1 —
Protean Hulk 1 —
Ranger-Captain of Eos 1 when it enters: search for a creature card
Reanimate 1 —
Sacrifice 1 —
Sevinne's Reclamation 1 —
Shang-Chi, Master of Kung Fu 1 —
Silence 1 —
Sol Ring 1 tap: adds 2 mana
Survival of the Fittest 1 1 mana: search for a creature card
Swords to Plowshares 1 —
The Queen of Dale 1 —
Turn the Earth 1 —
Tyvar, Jubilant Brawler 1 —
Vampiric Tutor 1 —
Veil of Summer 1 draw 1
Walking Ballista 1 —
Wild Growth 1 —
Worldly Tutor 1 search for a creature card
Yawgmoth's Will 1 —

Result

Write how many copies of the cards you want are in the deck.

Combos in hand

Chance to have every piece of a combo by turn 3: the combos from Commander Spellbook with every card in the main deck.

Mana sources

Lands and other sources of one color you need in 100 cards to cast a spell on curve: C is one symbol of that color in the cost, CC two, CCC three.

Sources for a 90% chance by that turn, on the play
CostTurn 1Turn 2Turn 3Turn 4Turn 5Turn 6
C252220181716
CC—3633302826
CCC——44413835

A land every turn

Chance to play a land on each turn up to that one: at least one land by turn 1, two by turn 2, and so on.

28 lands in the 100 cards of the deck.

Kethis, the Hidden Hand decks play 28.1 lands on average, all Commander decks 27.3 (last 90 days).

A land drop on every turn up to that one
Up to turnOn the playOn the drawToo fewToo many
193.6%93.6%6.4%3.7%
277.9%77.9%22.1%1.4%
357.0%57.0%43.0%0.5%
436.9%36.9%63.1%0.1%
521.3%21.3%55.4%0.0%
611.1%11.1%47.8%0.0%
75.3%5.3%40.7%0.0%
82.3%2.3%34.2%0.0%
90.9%0.9%28.4%0.0%
100.3%0.3%23.2%0.0%

Casting on curve

For each spell of the deck: chance to have, on the turn equal to its mana value, that many lands and enough lands of its colors. Hybrid and Phyrexian symbols don’t count; other mana sources (creatures, artifacts) neither.

From the riskiest spell
CardCostTurnOn the playOn the draw
Protean Hulk75.1%5.1%
Bridge from Below39.8%9.8%
Chord of Calling314.5%14.5%
Doctor Doom, Unrivaled424.4%24.4%
Dread Return424.4%24.4%
Ranger-Captain of Eos326.4%26.4%
Force of Vigor428.4%28.4%
Hazel's Brewmaster434.4%34.4%
Eldritch Evolution336.1%36.1%
Endurance336.1%36.1%
Nature's Rhythm236.8%36.8%
Kethis, the Hidden Hand339.5%39.5%
Tyvar, Jubilant Brawler346.3%46.3%
Sevinne's Reclamation348.5%48.5%
Lotho, Corrupt Shirriff248.8%48.8%
Necromancy350.2%50.2%
Opposition Agent350.2%50.2%
Poxwalkers350.2%50.2%
Yawgmoth's Will350.2%50.2%
Eladamri's Call251.5%51.5%
Formidable Speaker352.8%52.8%
Abrupt Decay253.5%53.5%
Jennifer Walters // The Sensational She-Hulk259.7%59.7%
The Queen of Dale259.7%59.7%
Enlightened Tutor162.0%62.0%
Erode162.0%62.0%
Esper Sentinel162.0%62.0%
Silence162.0%62.0%
Swords to Plowshares162.0%62.0%
Animate Dead262.4%62.4%
Demonic Tutor262.4%62.4%
Diabolic Intent262.4%62.4%
Goryo's Vengeance262.4%62.4%
Liliana the Repentant262.4%62.4%
Orcish Bowmasters262.4%62.4%
Cabal Therapy165.5%65.5%
Culling the Weak165.5%65.5%
Dark Ritual165.5%65.5%
Entomb165.5%65.5%
Imperial Seal165.5%65.5%
Reanimate165.5%65.5%
Sacrifice165.5%65.5%
Vampiric Tutor165.5%65.5%
Devoted Druid267.0%67.0%
Duskwatch Recruiter // Krallenhorde Howler267.0%67.0%
Hermit Druid267.0%67.0%
Shang-Chi, Master of Kung Fu267.0%67.0%
Survival of the Fittest267.0%67.0%
Avacyn's Pilgrim171.5%71.5%
Birds of Paradise171.5%71.5%
Crop Rotation171.5%71.5%
Delighted Halfling171.5%71.5%
Green Sun's Zenith171.5%71.5%
Turn the Earth171.5%71.5%
Veil of Summer171.5%71.5%
Wild Growth171.5%71.5%
Worldly Tutor171.5%71.5%
Agatha's Soul Cauldron277.9%77.9%
Arcane Signet277.9%77.9%
Marvin, Murderous Mimic277.9%77.9%
Painter's Servant277.9%77.9%
Deathrite Shaman193.6%93.6%
Grindstone193.6%93.6%
Hope of Ghirapur193.6%93.6%
Mana Vault193.6%93.6%
Sol Ring193.6%93.6%