Land Drop
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Hypergeometric calculator

Chance to have the cards you need by a given turn: one or more groups of cards, each with a minimum or a range of copies, all together or at least one. Count the copies yourself or from a deck. How it works

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Counting from Lumra, Bellow of the Woods · Jakob Cole Swartley · AoE Games 1K: 100 cards in the main deck.

Starting
More options: extra draws, mulligans, players
Conditions to meet
Condition 1
More conditions
Condition 2
Condition 3
Condition 4
Compare with

In place of cards of no condition: the deck keeps its size.

The 100 cards of the deck (96 different): conditions and effects
Which condition each card of the main deck counts for: the copies of a condition become the sum of its cards.
CardCopiesConditionIn the simulation
Ancient Tomb 1 —
Arid Archway 1 enters tapped; when it enters: scry 1
Boseiju, Who Endures 1 —
Buried Ruin 1 —
Castle Garenbrig 1 —
Cavern of Souls 1 —
City of Traitors 1 —
Command Beacon 1 —
Conduit Pylons 1 when it enters: scry 1
Crumbling Vestige 1 enters tapped
Crystal Vein 1 —
Deserted Temple 1 —
Echoing Deeps 1 —
Eden, Seat of the Sanctum 1 —
Emergence Zone 1 —
Field of the Dead 1 enters tapped
Forest 3 —
Gaea's Cradle 1 —
Geier Reach Sanitarium 1 —
Gemstone Caverns 1 —
Ghost Quarter 1 —
Havenwood Battleground 1 enters tapped
Hickory Woodlot 1 —
Horizon of Progress 1 —
Lazotep Quarry 1 —
Lotus Field 1 enters tapped
Mirrorpool 1 enters tapped
Misty Rainforest 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a forest / island card
Mouth of Ronom 1 —
Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx 1 —
Pit of Offerings 1 enters tapped
Prismatic Vista 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a basic land card
Sanctum of Eternity 1 —
Shifting Woodland 1 —
Snow-Covered Forest 3 —
Strip Mine 1 —
Sunscorched Desert 1 —
Talon Gates of Madara 1 —
Urza's Cave 1 3 mana, tap, sacrifice: search for a land card
Urza's Saga 1 —
Verdant Catacombs 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a swamp / forest card
Vesuva 1 —
Wasteland 1 —
Windswept Heath 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a forest / plains card
Wooded Foothills 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a mountain / forest card
Yavimaya, Cradle of Growth 1 —
Aftermath Analyst 1 —
Amulet of Vigor 1 —
Archdruid's Charm 1 —
Ashaya, Soul of the Wild 1 —
Birds of Paradise 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Blossoming Tortoise 1 —
Burgeoning 1 —
Chord of Calling 1 search for a creature card
Collector Ouphe 1 —
Crop Rotation 1 search for a land card
Delighted Halfling 1 tap: adds 1 mana; tap: adds 1 mana
Dryad's Revival 1 —
Eldrazi Confluence 1 sacrifice: adds 1 mana
Eldritch Evolution 1 search for a creature card
Elvish Reclaimer 1 2 mana, tap, sacrifice: search for a land card
Elvish Spirit Guide 1 —
Endurance 1 —
Exploration 1 —
Famished Worldsire 1 —
Finale of Devastation 1 —
Food Chain 1 —
Green Sun's Zenith 1 search for a green creature card
Horizon Explorer 1 —
Icetill Explorer 1 —
Lion's Eye Diamond 1 —
Lotus Cobra 1 —
Lotus Petal 1 tap, sacrifice: adds 1 mana
Lumra, Bellow of the Woods 1 —
Mana Vault 1 tap: adds 3 mana
Mox Diamond 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Natural Order 1 search for a green creature card
Nature's Rhythm 1 search for a creature card
Nissa, Resurgent Animist 1 —
Pia, Aether Ascetic 1 when it enters: search for a enchantment card
Scapeshift 1 —
Six 1 —
Sol Ring 1 tap: adds 2 mana
Spelunking 1 when it enters: draw 1
Springheart Nantuko 1 —
Summoner's Pact 1 search for a green creature card
Sylvan Safekeeper 1 —
Tezzeret, Cruel Captain 1 —
Thorn of Amethyst 1 —
Tiller Engine 1 —
Timeless Witness 1 —
Tireless Provisioner 1 —
Trinisphere 1 —
Vexing Bauble 1 —
Worldly Tutor 1 search for a creature card
Zuran Orb 1 —

Result

Write how many copies of the cards you want are in the deck.

Combos in hand

Chance to have every piece of a combo by turn 3: the combos from Commander Spellbook with every card in the main deck.

Mana sources

Lands and other sources of one color you need in 100 cards to cast a spell on curve: C is one symbol of that color in the cost, CC two, CCC three.

Sources for a 90% chance by that turn, on the play
CostTurn 1Turn 2Turn 3Turn 4Turn 5Turn 6
C252220181716
CC—3633302826
CCC——44413835

A land every turn

Chance to play a land on each turn up to that one: at least one land by turn 1, two by turn 2, and so on.

50 lands in the 100 cards of the deck.

Lumra, Bellow of the Woods decks play 48.9 lands on average, all Commander decks 27.4 (last 90 days).

A land drop on every turn up to that one
Up to turnOn the playOn the drawToo fewToo many
199.7%99.7%0.3%35.7%
298.5%98.5%1.5%24.3%
395.4%95.4%4.6%15.9%
490.0%90.0%10.0%10.0%
582.2%82.2%6.1%6.1%
672.3%72.3%3.6%3.6%
761.3%61.3%2.0%2.0%
850.0%50.0%1.1%1.1%
939.3%39.3%0.6%0.6%
1029.8%29.8%0.3%0.3%

Casting on curve

For each spell of the deck: chance to have, on the turn equal to its mana value, that many lands and enough lands of its colors. Hybrid and Phyrexian symbols don’t count; other mana sources (creatures, artifacts) neither.

From the riskiest spell
CardCostTurnOn the playOn the draw
Archdruid's Charm341.5%41.5%
Chord of Calling341.5%41.5%
Famished Worldsire843.7%43.7%
Finale of Devastation266.1%66.1%
Nature's Rhythm266.1%66.1%
Lumra, Bellow of the Woods666.7%66.7%
Eldritch Evolution371.4%71.4%
Endurance371.4%71.4%
Ashaya, Soul of the Wild572.1%72.1%
Blossoming Tortoise473.8%73.8%
Icetill Explorer473.8%73.8%
Natural Order473.8%73.8%
Scapeshift473.8%73.8%
Timeless Witness473.8%73.8%
Birds of Paradise188.7%88.7%
Burgeoning188.7%88.7%
Crop Rotation188.7%88.7%
Delighted Halfling188.7%88.7%
Elvish Reclaimer188.7%88.7%
Exploration188.7%88.7%
Green Sun's Zenith188.7%88.7%
Sylvan Safekeeper188.7%88.7%
Worldly Tutor188.7%88.7%
Eldrazi Confluence490.0%90.0%
Dryad's Revival390.6%90.6%
Elvish Spirit Guide390.6%90.6%
Food Chain390.6%90.6%
Horizon Explorer390.6%90.6%
Nissa, Resurgent Animist390.6%90.6%
Pia, Aether Ascetic390.6%90.6%
Six390.6%90.6%
Spelunking390.6%90.6%
Tireless Provisioner390.6%90.6%
Aftermath Analyst290.9%90.9%
Collector Ouphe290.9%90.9%
Lotus Cobra290.9%90.9%
Springheart Nantuko290.9%90.9%
Tezzeret, Cruel Captain395.4%95.4%
Trinisphere395.4%95.4%
Thorn of Amethyst298.5%98.5%
Tiller Engine298.5%98.5%
Amulet of Vigor199.7%99.7%
Mana Vault199.7%99.7%
Sol Ring199.7%99.7%
Vexing Bauble199.7%99.7%