Land Drop
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Hypergeometric calculator

Chance to have the cards you need by a given turn: one or more groups of cards, each with a minimum or a range of copies, all together or at least one. Count the copies yourself or from a deck. How it works

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Counting from Sauron, the Dark Lord · Dylen Henke · Midgar Market cEDH Monthly 7: Back to School: Strixhaven Edition: 100 cards in the main deck.

Starting
More options: extra draws, mulligans, players
Conditions to meet
Condition 1
More conditions
Condition 2
Condition 3
Condition 4
Compare with

In place of cards of no condition: the deck keeps its size.

The 100 cards of the deck (100 different): conditions and effects
Which condition each card of the main deck counts for: the copies of a condition become the sum of its cards.
CardCopiesConditionIn the simulation
Ancient Tomb 1 —
Arid Mesa 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a mountain / plains card
Badlands 1 —
Blood Crypt 1 —
Bloodstained Mire 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a swamp / mountain card
Cavern of Souls 1 —
City of Brass 1 —
City of Traitors 1 —
Command Tower 1 —
Exotic Orchard 1 —
Flooded Strand 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a plains / island card
Gemstone Caverns 1 —
Island 1 —
Luxury Suite 1 —
Mana Confluence 1 —
Marsh Flats 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a plains / swamp card
Misty Rainforest 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a forest / island card
Morphic Pool 1 —
Otawara, Soaring City 1 —
Polluted Delta 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a island / swamp card
Scalding Tarn 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a island / mountain card
Sink into Stupor // Soporific Springs 1 —
Spire of Industry 1 —
Steam Vents 1 —
Training Center 1 —
Underground Sea 1 —
Verdant Catacombs 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a swamp / forest card
Volcanic Island 1 —
Watery Grave 1 —
Wooded Foothills 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a mountain / forest card
Ad Nauseam 1 —
An Offer You Can't Refuse 1 —
Arcane Signet 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Beseech the Mirror 1 —
Birgi, God of Storytelling // Harnfel, Horn of Bounty 1 —
Brain Freeze 1 —
Cabal Ritual 1 adds 3 mana
Call of the Ring 1 —
Chrome Mox 1 —
Copy Enchantment 1 —
Culling the Weak 1 adds 4 mana
Dark Ritual 1 adds 3 mana
Demonic Consultation 1 —
Demonic Tutor 1 —
Faerie Mastermind 1 —
Fellwar Stone 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Flash Photography 1 —
Flusterstorm 1 —
Force of Negation 1 —
Force of Will 1 —
Gamble 1 —
Grim Monolith 1 tap: adds 3 mana
Hexing Squelcher 1 —
Imperial Seal 1 —
Infernal Plunge 1 adds 3 mana
Into the Flood Maw 1 —
Jeska's Will 1 —
Lion's Eye Diamond 1 —
Lotus Petal 1 tap, sacrifice: adds 1 mana
Mana Drain 1 —
Mana Vault 1 tap: adds 3 mana
Mental Misstep 1 —
Mindbreak Trap 1 —
Mirrormade 1 —
Misdirection 1 —
Mox Diamond 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Mox Opal 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Mystic Remora 1 —
Mystical Tutor 1 search for a instant / sorcery card
Opposition Agent 1 —
Orcish Bowmasters 1 —
Pact of Negation 1 —
Phyrexian Metamorph 1 —
Pyroblast 1 —
Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer 1 —
Razaketh, the Foulblooded 1 —
Reanimate 1 —
Red Elemental Blast 1 —
Rhystic Study 1 —
Rite of Flame 1 adds 2 mana
Sauron, the Dark Lord 1 —
Simian Spirit Guide 1 —
Sol Ring 1 tap: adds 2 mana
Soothing of Sméagol 1 —
Swan Song 1 —
Tainted Pact 1 —
Talisman of Creativity 1 tap: adds 1 mana; tap: adds 1 mana
Talisman of Dominance 1 tap: adds 1 mana; tap: adds 1 mana
Talisman of Indulgence 1 tap: adds 1 mana; tap: adds 1 mana
Thassa's Oracle 1 —
The Dominion Bracelet 1 —
The One Ring 1 tap: draw 1
Toxic Deluge 1 —
Underworld Breach 1 —
Valley Floodcaller 1 —
Vampiric Tutor 1 —
Wheel of Fortune 1 —
Windfall 1 —
Wishclaw Talisman 1 —
Yawgmoth's Will 1 —

Result

Write how many copies of the cards you want are in the deck.

Mana sources

Lands and other sources of one color you need in 100 cards to cast a spell on curve: C is one symbol of that color in the cost, CC two, CCC three.

Sources for a 90% chance by that turn, on the play
CostTurn 1Turn 2Turn 3Turn 4Turn 5Turn 6
C252220181716
CC—3633302826
CCC——44413835

A land every turn

Chance to play a land on each turn up to that one: at least one land by turn 1, two by turn 2, and so on.

30 lands in the 100 cards of the deck.

Sauron, the Dark Lord decks play 32.0 lands on average, all Commander decks 27.3 (last 90 days).

A land drop on every turn up to that one
Up to turnOn the playOn the drawToo fewToo many
194.9%94.9%5.1%5.0%
281.7%81.7%18.3%2.0%
362.7%62.7%37.3%0.7%
443.0%43.0%57.0%0.3%
526.6%26.6%48.8%0.1%
615.0%15.0%41.0%0.0%
77.7%7.7%34.0%0.0%
83.7%3.7%27.8%0.0%
91.6%1.6%22.4%0.0%
100.7%0.7%17.8%0.0%

Casting on curve

For each spell of the deck: chance to have, on the turn equal to its mana value, that many lands and enough lands of its colors. Hybrid and Phyrexian symbols don’t count; other mana sources (creatures, artifacts) neither.

From the riskiest spell
CardCostTurnOn the playOn the draw
Razaketh, the Foulblooded83.5%3.5%
Sauron, the Dark Lord614.9%14.9%
Beseech the Mirror423.3%23.3%
Ad Nauseam524.7%24.7%
Force of Will526.0%26.0%
Misdirection526.0%26.0%
Flash Photography440.4%40.4%
Mindbreak Trap440.4%40.4%
Phyrexian Metamorph443.0%43.0%
The One Ring443.0%43.0%
Force of Negation353.3%53.3%
Mirrormade353.3%53.3%
Mana Drain257.3%57.3%
Thassa's Oracle257.3%57.3%
Birgi, God of Storytelling // Harnfel, Horn of Bounty360.1%60.1%
Jeska's Will360.1%60.1%
Opposition Agent360.1%60.1%
Simian Spirit Guide360.1%60.1%
Toxic Deluge360.1%60.1%
Wheel of Fortune360.1%60.1%
Yawgmoth's Will360.1%60.1%
Copy Enchantment361.7%61.7%
Rhystic Study361.7%61.7%
Valley Floodcaller361.7%61.7%
Windfall361.7%61.7%
Cabal Ritual274.3%74.3%
Call of the Ring274.3%74.3%
Demonic Tutor274.3%74.3%
Hexing Squelcher274.3%74.3%
Orcish Bowmasters274.3%74.3%
Tainted Pact274.3%74.3%
Underworld Breach274.3%74.3%
Wishclaw Talisman274.3%74.3%
Brain Freeze277.9%77.9%
Faerie Mastermind277.9%77.9%
Soothing of Sméagol277.9%77.9%
Culling the Weak178.8%78.8%
Dark Ritual178.8%78.8%
Demonic Consultation178.8%78.8%
Gamble178.8%78.8%
Imperial Seal178.8%78.8%
Infernal Plunge178.8%78.8%
Pyroblast178.8%78.8%
Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer178.8%78.8%
Reanimate178.8%78.8%
Red Elemental Blast178.8%78.8%
Rite of Flame178.8%78.8%
Vampiric Tutor178.8%78.8%
Arcane Signet281.7%81.7%
Fellwar Stone281.7%81.7%
Grim Monolith281.7%81.7%
Talisman of Creativity281.7%81.7%
Talisman of Dominance281.7%81.7%
Talisman of Indulgence281.7%81.7%
The Dominion Bracelet281.7%81.7%
An Offer You Can't Refuse184.4%84.4%
Flusterstorm184.4%84.4%
Into the Flood Maw184.4%84.4%
Mystic Remora184.4%84.4%
Mystical Tutor184.4%84.4%
Swan Song184.4%84.4%
Mana Vault194.9%94.9%
Mental Misstep194.9%94.9%
Sol Ring194.9%94.9%