Land Drop
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Hypergeometric calculator

Chance to have the cards you need by a given turn: one or more groups of cards, each with a minimum or a range of copies, all together or at least one. Count the copies yourself or from a deck. How it works

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Counting from Kraum, Ludevic's Opus + Tymna the Weaver · Logan Pickell · Trainer J's 100% Proxy Legal CEDH Tournament: 100 cards in the main deck.

Starting
More options: extra draws, mulligans, players
Conditions to meet
Condition 1
More conditions
Condition 2
Condition 3
Condition 4
Compare with

In place of cards of no condition: the deck keeps its size.

The 100 cards of the deck (100 different): conditions and effects
Which condition each card of the main deck counts for: the copies of a condition become the sum of its cards.
CardCopiesConditionIn the simulation
Ancient Tomb 1 —
Arid Mesa 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a mountain / plains card
Badlands 1 —
Bloodstained Mire 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a swamp / mountain card
Cavern of Souls 1 —
City of Brass 1 —
Command Tower 1 —
Exotic Orchard 1 —
Flooded Strand 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a plains / island card
Gemstone Caverns 1 —
Mana Confluence 1 —
Marsh Flats 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a plains / swamp card
Misty Rainforest 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a forest / island card
Otawara, Soaring City 1 —
Plateau 1 —
Polluted Delta 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a island / swamp card
Scalding Tarn 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a island / mountain card
Scrubland 1 —
Starting Town 1 —
Tarnished Citadel 1 —
Tundra 1 —
Underground Sea 1 —
Verdant Catacombs 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a swamp / forest card
Volcanic Island 1 —
Wooded Foothills 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a mountain / forest card
Ad Nauseam 1 —
An Offer You Can't Refuse 1 —
Arcane Signet 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Beseech the Mirror 1 —
Borne Upon a Wind 1 draw 1
Brain Freeze 1 —
Cabal Ritual 1 adds 3 mana
Chain of Vapor 1 —
Chrome Mox 1 —
Copy Enchantment 1 —
Culling the Weak 1 adds 4 mana
Dark Ritual 1 adds 3 mana
Deflecting Swat 1 —
Demonic Consultation 1 —
Demonic Tutor 1 —
Diabolic Intent 1 —
Dragon's Rage Channeler 1 —
Enlightened Tutor 1 search for a artifact / enchantment card
Esper Sentinel 1 —
Faerie Mastermind 1 —
Fierce Guardianship 1 —
Final Fortune 1 —
Flusterstorm 1 —
Force of Negation 1 —
Force of Will 1 —
Gamble 1 —
Gleaming Splendor 1 —
Grand Abolisher 1 —
Hexing Squelcher 1 —
Imperial Seal 1 —
Intuition 1 —
Jeska's Will 1 —
King T'Challa // Black Panther, Hope Enduring 1 —
Kraum, Ludevic's Opus 1 —
Lion's Eye Diamond 1 —
Lotho, Corrupt Shirriff 1 —
Lotus Petal 1 tap, sacrifice: adds 1 mana
Mana Vault 1 tap: adds 3 mana
Mental Misstep 1 —
Mindbreak Trap 1 —
Mnemonic Betrayal 1 —
Mockingbird 1 —
Mox Amber 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Mox Diamond 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Mox Opal 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Mystic Remora 1 —
Mystical Tutor 1 search for a instant / sorcery card
Necropotence 1 —
Orcish Bowmasters 1 —
Orim's Chant 1 —
Pact of Negation 1 —
Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer 1 —
Rain of Filth 1 sacrifice: adds 1 mana
Ranger-Captain of Eos 1 when it enters: search for a creature card
Red Elemental Blast 1 —
Rhystic Study 1 —
Rite of Flame 1 adds 2 mana
Samut, Tyrant of Naktamun 1 —
Sevinne's Reclamation 1 —
Silence 1 —
Simian Spirit Guide 1 —
Smothering Tithe 1 —
Snapback 1 —
Sol Ring 1 tap: adds 2 mana
Swan Song 1 —
Swords to Plowshares 1 —
Tainted Pact 1 —
Tataru Taru 1 when it enters: draw 1
Thassa's Oracle 1 —
Tymna the Weaver 1 —
Underworld Breach 1 —
Valley Floodcaller 1 —
Vampiric Tutor 1 —
Wheel of Fortune 1 —
Wishclaw Talisman 1 —

Result

Write how many copies of the cards you want are in the deck.

Combos in hand

Chance to have every piece of a combo by turn 3: the combos from Commander Spellbook with every card in the main deck.

Mana sources

Lands and other sources of one color you need in 100 cards to cast a spell on curve: C is one symbol of that color in the cost, CC two, CCC three.

Sources for a 90% chance by that turn, on the play
CostTurn 1Turn 2Turn 3Turn 4Turn 5Turn 6
C252220181716
CC—3633302826
CCC——44413835

A land every turn

Chance to play a land on each turn up to that one: at least one land by turn 1, two by turn 2, and so on.

25 lands in the 100 cards of the deck.

Kraum, Ludevic's Opus + Tymna the Weaver decks play 25.5 lands on average, all Commander decks 27.3 (last 90 days).

A land drop on every turn up to that one
Up to turnOn the playOn the drawToo fewToo many
190.9%90.9%9.1%2.2%
271.2%71.2%28.8%0.7%
347.8%47.8%52.2%0.2%
427.9%27.9%72.1%0.1%
514.4%14.4%65.3%0.0%
66.6%6.6%58.4%0.0%
72.7%2.7%51.7%0.0%
81.0%1.0%45.1%0.0%
90.4%0.4%39.0%0.0%
100.1%0.1%33.3%0.0%

Casting on curve

For each spell of the deck: chance to have, on the turn equal to its mana value, that many lands and enough lands of its colors. Hybrid and Phyrexian symbols don’t count; other mana sources (creatures, artifacts) neither.

From the riskiest spell
CardCostTurnOn the playOn the draw
Ad Nauseam513.6%13.6%
Force of Will513.9%13.9%
Kraum, Ludevic's Opus514.3%14.3%
Beseech the Mirror415.9%15.9%
Necropotence317.1%17.1%
Mindbreak Trap425.5%25.5%
Smothering Tithe427.4%27.4%
Ranger-Captain of Eos333.5%33.5%
Grand Abolisher236.8%36.8%
Force of Negation338.3%38.3%
Final Fortune240.4%40.4%
Thassa's Oracle244.0%44.0%
Tymna the Weaver344.1%44.1%
King T'Challa // Black Panther, Hope Enduring344.5%44.5%
Mnemonic Betrayal345.1%45.1%
Sevinne's Reclamation345.5%45.5%
Deflecting Swat346.2%46.2%
Jeska's Will346.2%46.2%
Simian Spirit Guide346.2%46.2%
Wheel of Fortune346.2%46.2%
Copy Enchantment346.7%46.7%
Fierce Guardianship346.7%46.7%
Intuition346.7%46.7%
Rhystic Study346.7%46.7%
Valley Floodcaller346.7%46.7%
Lotho, Corrupt Shirriff259.0%59.0%
Gleaming Splendor263.4%63.4%
Tataru Taru263.4%63.4%
Cabal Ritual265.1%65.1%
Demonic Tutor265.1%65.1%
Diabolic Intent265.1%65.1%
Hexing Squelcher265.1%65.1%
Orcish Bowmasters265.1%65.1%
Tainted Pact265.1%65.1%
Underworld Breach265.1%65.1%
Wishclaw Talisman265.1%65.1%
Borne Upon a Wind266.5%66.5%
Brain Freeze266.5%66.5%
Faerie Mastermind266.5%66.5%
Samut, Tyrant of Naktamun266.5%66.5%
Snapback266.5%66.5%
Arcane Signet271.2%71.2%
Enlightened Tutor171.5%71.5%
Esper Sentinel171.5%71.5%
Orim's Chant171.5%71.5%
Silence171.5%71.5%
Swords to Plowshares171.5%71.5%
Culling the Weak174.1%74.1%
Dark Ritual174.1%74.1%
Demonic Consultation174.1%74.1%
Dragon's Rage Channeler174.1%74.1%
Gamble174.1%74.1%
Imperial Seal174.1%74.1%
Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer174.1%74.1%
Rain of Filth174.1%74.1%
Red Elemental Blast174.1%74.1%
Rite of Flame174.1%74.1%
Vampiric Tutor174.1%74.1%
An Offer You Can't Refuse176.6%76.6%
Chain of Vapor176.6%76.6%
Flusterstorm176.6%76.6%
Mockingbird176.6%76.6%
Mystic Remora176.6%76.6%
Mystical Tutor176.6%76.6%
Swan Song176.6%76.6%
Mana Vault190.9%90.9%
Mental Misstep190.9%90.9%
Sol Ring190.9%90.9%