Land Drop
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Hypergeometric calculator

Chance to have the cards you need by a given turn: one or more groups of cards, each with a minimum or a range of copies, all together or at least one. Count the copies yourself or from a deck. How it works

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Counting from Tivit, Seller of Secrets · Kristofer Hirshberger · Breach the Bay 2 Redemption Event: 100 cards in the main deck.

Starting
More options: extra draws, mulligans, players
Conditions to meet
Condition 1
More conditions
Condition 2
Condition 3
Condition 4
Compare with

In place of cards of no condition: the deck keeps its size.

The 100 cards of the deck (100 different): conditions and effects
Which condition each card of the main deck counts for: the copies of a condition become the sum of its cards.
CardCopiesConditionIn the simulation
Ancient Tomb 1 —
Arid Mesa 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a mountain / plains card
Bloodstained Mire 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a swamp / mountain card
Cavern of Souls 1 —
City of Brass 1 —
City of Traitors 1 —
Command Tower 1 —
Flooded Strand 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a plains / island card
Gemstone Caverns 1 —
Godless Shrine 1 —
Hallowed Fountain 1 —
Inventors' Fair 1 4 mana, tap, sacrifice: search for a artifact card
Mana Confluence 1 —
Marsh Flats 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a plains / swamp card
Misty Rainforest 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a forest / island card
Otawara, Soaring City 1 —
Polluted Delta 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a island / swamp card
Scalding Tarn 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a island / mountain card
Scrubland 1 —
Silent Clearing 1 —
Sink into Stupor // Soporific Springs 1 —
Tarnished Citadel 1 —
Tundra 1 —
Undercity Sewers 1 enters tapped; when it enters: scry 1
Underground Sea 1 —
Urza's Saga 1 —
Verdant Catacombs 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a swamp / forest card
Watery Grave 1 —
Windswept Heath 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a forest / plains card
An Offer You Can't Refuse 1 —
Arcane Signet 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Chain of Vapor 1 —
Chrome Mox 1 —
Commandeer 1 —
Cursed Totem 1 —
Cyclonic Rift 1 —
Dark Ritual 1 adds 3 mana
Delivery Moogle 1 —
Demonic Consultation 1 —
Demonic Tutor 1 —
Displacer Kitten 1 —
Disrupting Shoal 1 —
Enlightened Tutor 1 search for a artifact / enchantment card
Esper Sentinel 1 —
Faerie Mastermind 1 —
Fierce Guardianship 1 —
Flash Photography 1 —
Flusterstorm 1 —
Force of Negation 1 —
Force of Will 1 —
Gleaming Splendor 1 —
Grafdigger's Cage 1 —
Grand Abolisher 1 —
Grim Monolith 1 tap: adds 3 mana
Grim Tutor 1 —
Imperial Seal 1 —
Into the Flood Maw 1 —
Lim-Dûl's Vault 1 —
Lotho, Corrupt Shirriff 1 —
Lotus Petal 1 tap, sacrifice: adds 1 mana
Mana Drain 1 —
Mana Vault 1 tap: adds 3 mana
Mental Misstep 1 —
Mindbreak Trap 1 —
Mockingbird 1 —
Mox Amber 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Mox Diamond 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Mox Opal 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Mystic Remora 1 —
Necropotence 1 —
Opposition Agent 1 —
Orcish Bowmasters 1 —
Orim's Chant 1 —
Pact of Negation 1 —
Ranger-Captain of Eos 1 when it enters: search for a creature card
Rhystic Study 1 —
Scheming Symmetry 1 —
Silence 1 —
Smothering Tithe 1 —
Snapback 1 —
Snuff Out 1 —
Sol Ring 1 tap: adds 2 mana
Strix Serenade 1 —
Subtlety 1 —
Swan Song 1 —
Tainted Pact 1 —
Talisman of Dominance 1 tap: adds 1 mana; tap: adds 1 mana
Talisman of Hierarchy 1 tap: adds 1 mana; tap: adds 1 mana
Tataru Taru 1 when it enters: draw 1
Teferi, Time Raveler 1 —
Thassa's Oracle 1 —
The Mind Stone 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Time Sieve 1 —
Tivit, Seller of Secrets 1 —
Touch the Spirit Realm 1 —
Transmute Artifact 1 search for a artifact card
Vampiric Tutor 1 —
Vexing Bauble 1 —
Voice of Victory 1 —
Wishclaw Talisman 1 —

Result

Write how many copies of the cards you want are in the deck.

Combos in hand

Chance to have every piece of a combo by turn 3: the combos from Commander Spellbook with every card in the main deck.

Mana sources

Lands and other sources of one color you need in 100 cards to cast a spell on curve: C is one symbol of that color in the cost, CC two, CCC three.

Sources for a 90% chance by that turn, on the play
CostTurn 1Turn 2Turn 3Turn 4Turn 5Turn 6
C252220181716
CC—3633302826
CCC——44413835

A land every turn

Chance to play a land on each turn up to that one: at least one land by turn 1, two by turn 2, and so on.

29 lands in the 100 cards of the deck.

Tivit, Seller of Secrets decks play 27.9 lands on average, all Commander decks 27.3 (last 90 days).

A land drop on every turn up to that one
Up to turnOn the playOn the drawToo fewToo many
194.3%94.3%5.7%4.3%
279.9%79.9%20.1%1.6%
359.9%59.9%40.1%0.6%
439.9%39.9%60.1%0.2%
523.9%23.9%52.0%0.1%
613.0%13.0%44.4%0.0%
76.4%6.4%37.3%0.0%
82.9%2.9%30.9%0.0%
91.2%1.2%25.2%0.0%
100.5%0.5%20.4%0.0%

Casting on curve

For each spell of the deck: chance to have, on the turn equal to its mana value, that many lands and enough lands of its colors. Hybrid and Phyrexian symbols don’t count; other mana sources (creatures, artifacts) neither.

From the riskiest spell
CardCostTurnOn the playOn the draw
Commandeer76.4%6.4%
Tivit, Seller of Secrets612.9%12.9%
Necropotence319.8%19.8%
Force of Will522.5%22.5%
Flash Photography434.9%34.9%
Mindbreak Trap434.9%34.9%
Subtlety434.9%34.9%
Delivery Moogle438.8%38.8%
Smothering Tithe438.8%38.8%
Snuff Out439.1%39.1%
Displacer Kitten439.4%39.4%
Ranger-Captain of Eos339.8%39.8%
Grand Abolisher240.4%40.4%
Grim Tutor342.6%42.6%
Force of Negation345.3%45.3%
Disrupting Shoal247.5%47.5%
Mana Drain247.5%47.5%
Thassa's Oracle247.5%47.5%
Transmute Artifact247.5%47.5%
Teferi, Time Raveler354.1%54.1%
Touch the Spirit Realm356.1%56.1%
Opposition Agent357.0%57.0%
Fierce Guardianship357.7%57.7%
Rhystic Study357.7%57.7%
Lotho, Corrupt Shirriff264.2%64.2%
Lim-Dûl's Vault266.3%66.3%
Time Sieve266.3%66.3%
Gleaming Splendor270.0%70.0%
Tataru Taru270.0%70.0%
The Mind Stone270.0%70.0%
Voice of Victory270.0%70.0%
Demonic Tutor271.7%71.7%
Orcish Bowmasters271.7%71.7%
Tainted Pact271.7%71.7%
Wishclaw Talisman271.7%71.7%
Cyclonic Rift273.2%73.2%
Faerie Mastermind273.2%73.2%
Snapback273.2%73.2%
Enlightened Tutor174.1%74.1%
Esper Sentinel174.1%74.1%
Orim's Chant174.1%74.1%
Silence174.1%74.1%
Dark Ritual176.6%76.6%
Demonic Consultation176.6%76.6%
Imperial Seal176.6%76.6%
Scheming Symmetry176.6%76.6%
Vampiric Tutor176.6%76.6%
An Offer You Can't Refuse178.8%78.8%
Chain of Vapor178.8%78.8%
Flusterstorm178.8%78.8%
Into the Flood Maw178.8%78.8%
Mockingbird178.8%78.8%
Mystic Remora178.8%78.8%
Strix Serenade178.8%78.8%
Swan Song178.8%78.8%
Arcane Signet279.9%79.9%
Cursed Totem279.9%79.9%
Grim Monolith279.9%79.9%
Talisman of Dominance279.9%79.9%
Talisman of Hierarchy279.9%79.9%
Grafdigger's Cage194.3%94.3%
Mana Vault194.3%94.3%
Mental Misstep194.3%94.3%
Sol Ring194.3%94.3%
Vexing Bauble194.3%94.3%