Land Drop
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Hypergeometric calculator

Chance to have the cards you need by a given turn: one or more groups of cards, each with a minimum or a range of copies, all together or at least one. Count the copies yourself or from a deck. How it works

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Counting from Crystal, Inhuman Princess · Ryder Whitley · Bayou cEDH Tournament: 100 cards in the main deck.

Starting
More options: extra draws, mulligans, players
Conditions to meet
Condition 1
More conditions
Condition 2
Condition 3
Condition 4
Compare with

In place of cards of no condition: the deck keeps its size.

The 100 cards of the deck (100 different): conditions and effects
Which condition each card of the main deck counts for: the copies of a condition become the sum of its cards.
CardCopiesConditionIn the simulation
Ancient Tomb 1 —
Arid Mesa 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a mountain / plains card
Boseiju, Who Endures 1 —
Breeding Pool 1 —
City of Brass 1 —
Command Tower 1 —
Exotic Orchard 1 —
Flooded Strand 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a plains / island card
Forbidden Orchard 1 —
Gemstone Caverns 1 —
Hallowed Fountain 1 —
Mana Confluence 1 —
Misty Rainforest 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a forest / island card
Otawara, Soaring City 1 —
Plateau 1 —
Polluted Delta 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a island / swamp card
Savannah 1 —
Scalding Tarn 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a island / mountain card
Steam Vents 1 —
Taiga 1 —
Tarnished Citadel 1 —
Tropical Island 1 —
Tundra 1 —
Volcanic Island 1 —
Windswept Heath 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a forest / plains card
Wooded Foothills 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a mountain / forest card
An Offer You Can't Refuse 1 —
Arcane Signet 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Archivist of Oghma 1 —
Birds of Paradise 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Borne Upon a Wind 1 draw 1
Brain Freeze 1 —
Chrome Mox 1 —
Crystal, Inhuman Princess 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Curiosity 1 —
Daze 1 —
Deflecting Swat 1 —
Elvish Mystic 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Elvish Spirit Guide 1 —
Emerald Charm 1 —
Enlightened Tutor 1 search for a artifact / enchantment card
Esper Sentinel 1 —
Faerie Mastermind 1 —
Fierce Guardianship 1 —
Final Fortune 1 —
Flusterstorm 1 —
Force of Negation 1 —
Force of Will 1 —
Gamble 1 —
Gitaxian Probe 1 draw 1
Gut Shot 1 —
Into the Flood Maw 1 —
Intuition 1 —
Jennifer Walters // The Sensational She-Hulk 1 —
Jeska's Will 1 —
Jeskai Ascendancy 1 —
Keen Sense 1 —
Kellan, the Fae-Blooded // Birthright Boon 1 —
Legolas's Quick Reflexes 1 —
Lion's Eye Diamond 1 —
Lotus Petal 1 tap, sacrifice: adds 1 mana
Mana Vault 1 tap: adds 3 mana
Manamorphose 1 adds 2 mana; draw 1
Mental Misstep 1 —
Mindbreak Trap 1 —
Misdirection 1 —
Mox Amber 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Mox Diamond 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Mystic Remora 1 —
Noble Hierarch 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Noxious Revival 1 —
Ophidian Eye 1 —
Orim's Chant 1 —
Pact of Negation 1 —
Pyroblast 1 —
Pyrokinesis 1 —
Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer 1 —
Red Elemental Blast 1 —
Redirect Lightning 1 —
Rhystic Study 1 —
Rite of Flame 1 adds 2 mana
Sevinne's Reclamation 1 —
Silence 1 —
Simian Spirit Guide 1 —
Snake Umbra 1 —
Snap 1 —
Snapback 1 —
Sol Ring 1 tap: adds 2 mana
Storm-Kiln Artist 1 —
Strike It Rich 1 —
Swan Song 1 —
Tandem Lookout 1 —
The Cabbage Merchant 1 —
Tidal Bore 1 —
Tinder Wall 1 sacrifice: adds 2 mana
Underworld Breach 1 —
Veil of Summer 1 draw 1
Vivi Ornitier 1 —
Voice of Victory 1 —
Wild Growth 1 —

Result

Write how many copies of the cards you want are in the deck.

Combos in hand

Chance to have every piece of a combo by turn 3: the combos from Commander Spellbook with every card in the main deck.

Mana sources

Lands and other sources of one color you need in 100 cards to cast a spell on curve: C is one symbol of that color in the cost, CC two, CCC three.

Sources for a 90% chance by that turn, on the play
CostTurn 1Turn 2Turn 3Turn 4Turn 5Turn 6
C252220181716
CC—3633302826
CCC——44413835

A land every turn

Chance to play a land on each turn up to that one: at least one land by turn 1, two by turn 2, and so on.

26 lands in the 100 cards of the deck.

Crystal, Inhuman Princess decks play 25.9 lands on average, all Commander decks 27.4 (last 90 days).

A land drop on every turn up to that one
Up to turnOn the playOn the drawToo fewToo many
191.9%91.9%8.1%2.7%
273.6%73.6%26.4%0.9%
351.0%51.0%49.0%0.3%
430.8%30.8%69.2%0.1%
516.5%16.5%62.0%0.0%
68.0%8.0%54.9%0.0%
73.5%3.5%47.9%0.0%
81.4%1.4%41.3%0.0%
90.5%0.5%35.3%0.0%
100.2%0.2%29.7%0.0%

Casting on curve

For each spell of the deck: chance to have, on the turn equal to its mana value, that many lands and enough lands of its colors. Hybrid and Phyrexian symbols don’t count; other mana sources (creatures, artifacts) neither.

From the riskiest spell
CardCostTurnOn the playOn the draw
Pyrokinesis67.6%7.6%
Force of Will516.3%16.3%
Misdirection516.3%16.3%
Mindbreak Trap429.3%29.3%
Storm-Kiln Artist430.1%30.1%
Final Fortune236.8%36.8%
Force of Negation343.8%43.8%
Jeskai Ascendancy345.0%45.0%
Crystal, Inhuman Princess346.2%46.2%
Vivi Ornitier347.4%47.4%
Deflecting Swat348.1%48.1%
Jeska's Will348.1%48.1%
Kellan, the Fae-Blooded // Birthright Boon348.1%48.1%
Sevinne's Reclamation348.1%48.1%
Simian Spirit Guide348.1%48.1%
Elvish Spirit Guide348.8%48.8%
Snake Umbra348.8%48.8%
The Cabbage Merchant348.8%48.8%
Fierce Guardianship350.3%50.3%
Intuition350.3%50.3%
Ophidian Eye350.3%50.3%
Rhystic Study350.3%50.3%
Tandem Lookout350.3%50.3%
Archivist of Oghma264.7%64.7%
Jennifer Walters // The Sensational She-Hulk264.7%64.7%
Underworld Breach264.7%64.7%
Voice of Victory264.7%64.7%
Borne Upon a Wind270.3%70.3%
Brain Freeze270.3%70.3%
Daze270.3%70.3%
Faerie Mastermind270.3%70.3%
Snap270.3%70.3%
Snapback270.3%70.3%
Tidal Bore270.3%70.3%
Enlightened Tutor171.5%71.5%
Esper Sentinel171.5%71.5%
Gamble171.5%71.5%
Orim's Chant171.5%71.5%
Pyroblast171.5%71.5%
Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer171.5%71.5%
Red Elemental Blast171.5%71.5%
Redirect Lightning171.5%71.5%
Rite of Flame171.5%71.5%
Silence171.5%71.5%
Strike It Rich171.5%71.5%
Arcane Signet273.6%73.6%
Manamorphose273.6%73.6%
Birds of Paradise174.1%74.1%
Elvish Mystic174.1%74.1%
Emerald Charm174.1%74.1%
Keen Sense174.1%74.1%
Legolas's Quick Reflexes174.1%74.1%
Noble Hierarch174.1%74.1%
Tinder Wall174.1%74.1%
Veil of Summer174.1%74.1%
Wild Growth174.1%74.1%
An Offer You Can't Refuse180.8%80.8%
Curiosity180.8%80.8%
Flusterstorm180.8%80.8%
Into the Flood Maw180.8%80.8%
Mystic Remora180.8%80.8%
Swan Song180.8%80.8%
Gitaxian Probe191.9%91.9%
Gut Shot191.9%91.9%
Mana Vault191.9%91.9%
Mental Misstep191.9%91.9%
Noxious Revival191.9%91.9%
Sol Ring191.9%91.9%