Land Drop
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Hypergeometric calculator

Chance to have the cards you need by a given turn: one or more groups of cards, each with a minimum or a range of copies, all together or at least one. Count the copies yourself or from a deck. How it works

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Counting from Shang-Chi, Master of Kung Fu · Thomas EBAM · Level 7's First of the Season 1k: 100 cards in the main deck.

Starting
More options: extra draws, mulligans, players
Conditions to meet
Condition 1
More conditions
Condition 2
Condition 3
Condition 4
Compare with

In place of cards of no condition: the deck keeps its size.

The 100 cards of the deck (92 different): conditions and effects
Which condition each card of the main deck counts for: the copies of a condition become the sum of its cards.
CardCopiesConditionIn the simulation
Ancient Tomb 1 —
Boseiju, Who Endures 1 —
City of Traitors 1 —
Disciple of Freyalise // Garden of Freyalise 1 —
Dryad Arbor 1 —
Emergence Zone 1 —
Forest 9 —
Gaea's Cradle 1 —
Gemstone Caverns 1 —
Hickory Woodlot 1 —
Misty Rainforest 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a forest / island card
Talon Gates of Madara 1 —
Turntimber Symbiosis // Turntimber, Serpentine Wood 1 look at 7, take one
Verdant Catacombs 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a swamp / forest card
Windswept Heath 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a forest / plains card
Wooded Foothills 1 tap, sacrifice: search for a mountain / forest card
Yavimaya, Cradle of Growth 1 —
Arbor Elf 1 —
Archdruid's Charm 1 —
Ashaya, Soul of the Wild 1 —
Badgermole Cub 1 —
Birds of Paradise 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Celestial Reunion 1 search for a creature card
Chancellor of the Tangle 1 —
Chomping Changeling 1 —
Chord of Calling 1 search for a creature card
Chrome Mox 1 —
Circle of Dreams Druid 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Collector Ouphe 1 —
Crop Rotation 1 search for a land card
Delighted Halfling 1 tap: adds 1 mana; tap: adds 1 mana
Dosan the Falling Leaf 1 —
Duskwatch Recruiter // Krallenhorde Howler 1 3 mana: look at 3, take one
Ecological Appreciation 1 —
Eladamri, Korvecdal 1 —
Eldritch Evolution 1 search for a creature card
Elvish Archdruid 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Elvish Harbinger 1 when it enters: search for a elf card; tap: adds 1 mana
Elvish Mystic 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Elvish Reclaimer 1 2 mana, tap, sacrifice: search for a land card
Elvish Spirit Guide 1 —
Eternal Witness 1 —
Fanatic of Rhonas 1 tap: adds 1 mana; tap: adds 4 mana
Fauna Shaman 1 1 mana, tap: search for a creature card
Finale of Devastation 1 —
Formidable Speaker 1 when it enters: search for a creature card
Fyndhorn Elves 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Generous Patron 1 —
Green Sun's Zenith 1 search for a green creature card
Invasion of Ikoria // Zilortha, Apex of Ikoria 1 —
Joraga Treespeaker 1 tap: adds 2 mana; tap: adds 2 mana
Karametra's Acolyte 1 —
Kogla, the Titan Ape 1 —
Legolas's Quick Reflexes 1 —
Leyline of Abundance 1 —
Llanowar Elves 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Llanowar Mentor 1 —
Lotus Petal 1 tap, sacrifice: adds 1 mana
Magus of the Candelabra 1 —
Magus of the Order 1 1 mana, tap, sacrifice: search for a green creature card
Mana Vault 1 tap: adds 3 mana
Marvin, Murderous Mimic 1 —
Mox Amber 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Natural Order 1 search for a green creature card
Nature's Rhythm 1 search for a creature card
Once Upon a Time 1 look at 5, take one
Orochi Leafcaller 1 1 mana: adds 1 mana
Priest of Titania 1 tap: adds 1 mana
Quirion Ranger 1 —
Regal Force 1 when it enters: draw 1
Reverent Silence 1 —
Scryb Ranger 1 —
Seeker of Skybreak 1 —
Shaman of Forgotten Ways 1 tap: adds 2 mana
Shang-Chi, Master of Kung Fu 1 —
Shared Summons 1 —
Skyshroud Poacher 1 3 mana, tap: search for a elf card
Sol Ring 1 tap: adds 2 mana
Sowing Mycospawn 1 —
Summoner's Pact 1 search for a green creature card
Survival of the Fittest 1 1 mana: search for a creature card
Sylvan Library 1 —
Sylvan Scrying 1 search for a land card
Temur Sabertooth 1 —
Ulvenwald Tracker 1 —
Veil of Summer 1 draw 1
Voice of Many 1 when it enters: draw 1
Wirewood Symbiote 1 —
Woodland Bellower 1 when it enters: search for a nonlegendary green creature card
Worldly Tutor 1 search for a creature card
Yeva, Nature's Herald 1 —
Yisan, the Wanderer Bard 1 3 mana, tap: search for a creature card

Result

Write how many copies of the cards you want are in the deck.

Combos in hand

Chance to have every piece of a combo by turn 3: the combos from Commander Spellbook with every card in the main deck.

Mana sources

Lands and other sources of one color you need in 100 cards to cast a spell on curve: C is one symbol of that color in the cost, CC two, CCC three.

Sources for a 90% chance by that turn, on the play
CostTurn 1Turn 2Turn 3Turn 4Turn 5Turn 6
C252220181716
CC—3633302826
CCC——44413835

A land every turn

Chance to play a land on each turn up to that one: at least one land by turn 1, two by turn 2, and so on.

25 lands in the 100 cards of the deck.

Shang-Chi, Master of Kung Fu decks play 25.1 lands on average, all Commander decks 27.3 (last 90 days).

A land drop on every turn up to that one
Up to turnOn the playOn the drawToo fewToo many
190.9%90.9%9.1%2.2%
271.2%71.2%28.8%0.7%
347.8%47.8%52.2%0.2%
427.9%27.9%72.1%0.1%
514.4%14.4%65.3%0.0%
66.6%6.6%58.4%0.0%
72.7%2.7%51.7%0.0%
81.0%1.0%45.1%0.0%
90.4%0.4%39.0%0.0%
100.1%0.1%33.3%0.0%

Casting on curve

For each spell of the deck: chance to have, on the turn equal to its mana value, that many lands and enough lands of its colors. Hybrid and Phyrexian symbols don’t count; other mana sources (creatures, artifacts) neither.

From the riskiest spell
CardCostTurnOn the playOn the draw
Chancellor of the Tangle72.7%2.7%
Regal Force72.7%2.7%
Kogla, the Titan Ape66.6%6.6%
Woodland Bellower66.6%6.6%
Ashaya, Soul of the Wild514.4%14.4%
Shared Summons514.4%14.4%
Leyline of Abundance427.8%27.8%
Magus of the Order427.8%27.8%
Natural Order427.8%27.8%
Skyshroud Poacher427.8%27.8%
Temur Sabertooth427.8%27.8%
Voice of Many427.8%27.8%
Yeva, Nature's Herald427.8%27.8%
Karametra's Acolyte427.9%27.9%
Reverent Silence427.9%27.9%
Sowing Mycospawn427.9%27.9%
Archdruid's Charm335.1%35.1%
Chord of Calling335.1%35.1%
Circle of Dreams Druid335.1%35.1%
Dosan the Falling Leaf346.2%46.2%
Eladamri, Korvecdal346.2%46.2%
Eldritch Evolution346.2%46.2%
Elvish Archdruid346.2%46.2%
Eternal Witness346.2%46.2%
Chomping Changeling347.8%47.8%
Ecological Appreciation347.8%47.8%
Elvish Harbinger347.8%47.8%
Elvish Spirit Guide347.8%47.8%
Formidable Speaker347.8%47.8%
Generous Patron347.8%47.8%
Shaman of Forgotten Ways347.8%47.8%
Yisan, the Wanderer Bard347.8%47.8%
Finale of Devastation260.4%60.4%
Invasion of Ikoria // Zilortha, Apex of Ikoria260.4%60.4%
Nature's Rhythm260.4%60.4%
Badgermole Cub270.6%70.6%
Collector Ouphe270.6%70.6%
Duskwatch Recruiter // Krallenhorde Howler270.6%70.6%
Fanatic of Rhonas270.6%70.6%
Fauna Shaman270.6%70.6%
Once Upon a Time270.6%70.6%
Priest of Titania270.6%70.6%
Scryb Ranger270.6%70.6%
Seeker of Skybreak270.6%70.6%
Shang-Chi, Master of Kung Fu270.6%70.6%
Survival of the Fittest270.6%70.6%
Sylvan Library270.6%70.6%
Sylvan Scrying270.6%70.6%
Marvin, Murderous Mimic271.2%71.2%
Arbor Elf186.0%86.0%
Birds of Paradise186.0%86.0%
Celestial Reunion186.0%86.0%
Crop Rotation186.0%86.0%
Delighted Halfling186.0%86.0%
Elvish Mystic186.0%86.0%
Elvish Reclaimer186.0%86.0%
Fyndhorn Elves186.0%86.0%
Green Sun's Zenith186.0%86.0%
Joraga Treespeaker186.0%86.0%
Legolas's Quick Reflexes186.0%86.0%
Llanowar Elves186.0%86.0%
Llanowar Mentor186.0%86.0%
Magus of the Candelabra186.0%86.0%
Orochi Leafcaller186.0%86.0%
Quirion Ranger186.0%86.0%
Ulvenwald Tracker186.0%86.0%
Veil of Summer186.0%86.0%
Wirewood Symbiote186.0%86.0%
Worldly Tutor186.0%86.0%
Mana Vault190.9%90.9%
Sol Ring190.9%90.9%